By Tom Fowdy
Donald Trump has unleashed a global trade war against numerous parties.
The President has been ruthless in slapping tariffs on Britain, Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico, many of whom have retaliated with measures of their own. The north of the border has responded with indignation over the measures, prompting a surge in Canadian patriotism and defiance, contrasting with the caricature of Canada as a soft and overtly tolerant country that is subservient to American interests.
It goes without saying that the US President has gone further and more extensively with his tariffs than ever predicted. While he has made a few minor compromises here and there, the underlying assumption was, at least in my own predictions, that Trump would not truly go "all out" on allies and quickly settle before conflict began, yet he has done so, and seems unusually unapologetic to the fact his moves have damaged US stock markets (which he always clung to as an indicator of his success), the US dollar and is even unphased by a potential recession.
I have written at length already about how I believe Trump's moves, at least in the North American sphere, are motivated by what I describe as "MAGA imperialism", that is the openly expressed intention (hence '51st state') to subjugate regional countries to a US centric order which they maintain exclusive dominance over. However, his moves have gone further afield by starting fires with Europe and Britain. On a side note, I am not sure whether the UK will respond to the measures, although Ursula Von Der Leyen has already done so, which will be an embarrassment for the fanatically pro-Atlanticist commission President who aligned herself strongly with Washington from 2022 to 2025.
This all begs the question, what are Trump's broader motives in creating a destructive, global trade conflict? Beyond the geopolitical factors referenced above, I believe this campaign is purely domestic. I will note that the President has not yet done so at this stage against any Asian nation, presumably as the US does not want to lose ground against China. Hence again, Trump can be counterproductive and even erratic, but never truly irrational. Thus, on a domestic level, I believe this is to do with a desire to force through his national vision on a "whatever the cost" basis, contemplating that he only has four years to do so, and therefore must do so.
Because of this factor, the inevitability of the second term being Trump's final term, the President must exert every effort possible in order to permanently cement his legacy knowing that for him personally, and thus the MAGA faction, there may be no other chance to do so in the future. Trump is its figurehead, a man of immeasurable confidence who is politically indestructible, and he has no successor. In the hyper polarized environment of American politics, it is obvious that any succeeding democratic Presidency will do everything in its power to dismantle Trump's legacy and thus steer US politics back in its own direction. This creates a set of political stakes that are higher than ever.
Thus for Trump, the clock is ticking and the choice is obvious: You either do everything in your absolute power to permanently shift the paradigm of US politics to implement your vision, or you fail. This means, unlike 2017-2021, you must be prepared to take more risks than ever before and do what needs to be done in spite of the consequences. There should be no doubts and no regrets, with failure more associated with failing to try above anything else. Hence the President has taken it upon himself to build this "America first" world by unleashing a trade war on every feasible front, looking at the long-term solutions for the gains he hopes it will bring to America (I don't agree) than short-term pain.
Along this journey there will undoubtedly be many more things too, the next four years are going to be a rollercoaster as the President seeks to make his mark on American politics permanent and irreversible, aiming to be a "man of his destiny" in his own highly unconventional way. If it means throwing allies under the bus, then so be it.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | Can Europe re-engage with China amidst Trump turmoil
Opinion | The Trump doctrine of economic imperialism
Opinion | The rule of law and justice in the age of hyper-partisan politics
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