By Tom Fowdy
I've written about this topic on several occasions before, yet the unpredictability of Donald Trump always manages to switch me. Amongst many developments in the past week or so, the US President has actually went ahead with his threats to unleash a trade war on neighbours Canada and Mexico, and imposed tariffs on both of them. Why exactly? It doesn't seem also clear through his online ramblings, but coinciding with his hard line on Ukraine and renewed threats to Greenland, I believe that the perceived erratic manner and media fanfare that tends to follow the President around tends to distract from his real strategic motivations: Donald Trump is seeking to build a new "MAGA empire."
While it seems bizarre, self-defeating, and counterproductive for the US to abrasively take on states perceived as neighbours or allies, I believe that Trump's core idea is to create an exclusive economic sphere centred around America by coercive means and essentially force other states to submit to it. In other words, he is actively ripping up the global economic order to built a new one centred upon US protectionism and dominance.
A key part of the Trumpian claim is that the open, liberal, free-trade order America once championed now works to its disadvantage. Although America were global pioneers of capitalism and free market economics, the effects of globalization have allowed the MAGA's to push a narrative that America has been a net-loser of the system which has contributed to the demise of its industries and jobs. The centrepiece of that narrative has been a focus on the rise of China and its so-called "unfair economic practices" that are subsequently responsible for this "American decline."
It is therefore believed that under this status quo and "rigged system", America cannot compete, therefore it must resort to trade wars and tariffs to leverage the power of its massive consumer market and forcibly repatriate jobs to the United States. Of course, this is all simplistic and defies the logic of economics itself, yet the idea that Trump has espoused has saturated itself so deeply into the American political psyche that it has become a consensus, fusing it with the foreign policy elite's aspirations to maintain US hegemony and contain the rise of China.
Thus, while Trump's decision making appears to be misguided and reckless, it carries and embodies more sophisticated goals that his unconventional style often distracts from. For example, America's ambition to contain key and critical mineral supply chains. While a Democratic administration may wrap up its true aims in the flowery language of flowers, Trump is uniquely quite explicit in what he intends to do, even if he does not elaborate on the logic behind his ideas. Hence, the President is leveraging the defence of Ukraine on demanding critical of its critical mineral reserves, while also demanding Greenland's too.
On the regional front, Trump wants the United States to have complete dominance over the supply chains embedded in Mexico and Canada which have built economies dependent on exporting to the United States. Because of this, they have no leverage over America, who's market is essentially the entire foundation of their prosperity. I thus still contend the terms and conditions he will impose on these countries for ending the respective conflict will involve pushing China out in some areas, as well as more preferential arrangements to US trade in general. This is evident in how Trump seems to openly treat Canada as a vassal state and frequently insults Trudeau as a "governor." We should also assume he will want to dominate the natural resources of both countries respectively, which Canada has a significant deal of.
Finally, it is worth reminding ourselves that the "liberal" world order as we knew it is over, and we are now in a new age of interstate competition. Trump in many ways has been a product and initiator of this new and uncertain world, representing forces which seek to resist globalization from an identity based dynamic, thus manifesting in a western "reactionary backlash." Trump 2.0, however, is much more aggressive and forthright than his predecessor and it is a fool's errand to try and call his bluff.
His goal is to try and create a lopsided economic order by force that suits America's preferences, undercutting rivals and bolstering US exports. While China is in the firing line as the primary rival, so is everyone else too. This is MAGA imperialism, the overt, explicit, and undisguised assertion that America should look after its own interests, and nobody else's.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | The rule of law and justice in the age of hyper-partisan politics
Opinion | Another famous Trumpian Twist
Opinion | There is a Taiwan confrontation bubbling, look at the signs
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