By Tom Fowdy
Over the past few days, the mainstream media, especially that of Britain, have been bemoaning that Trump appears to be "pro-Kremlin" in his desire to end the war in Ukraine. After all, he's insulted President Zelensky, eluded to some of Moscow's positions, excluded Kyiv from high-level peace talks, blamed them for the war, the list goes on. It seemed apparent that the president was throwing Ukraine under the bus, which freaked out leaders in Europe.
Such provocative rhetoric is a staple of Trump's unpredictable style. But all of a sudden, it has now been announced that Ukraine and the US have agreed a deal for giving it access to its "critical minerals," and what happened? Trump announced that Kyiv has the right to "fight on" and the war will continue. All of a sudden, the President seems less keen to end the conflict despite making a fuss in doing so, and despite his denouncements of Ukraine spending US taxpayer dollars, the White House is happy for it to keep rolling on.
This should surprise nobody, in fact it was one of the outcomes I successfully predicted before he even returned office: That Donald Trump would not stop funding Ukraine, but instead create a narrative that they were supporting American jobs and therefore it is worthy to keep supporting them. And here we are. Of course, this does not change the fact as stated that the priority foreign policy goal of the US is to end the war, but there will be no "throwing Ukraine under the bus." Trump now has a marketing point as to why Ukraine should be defended and a purpose for doing so.
Beyond this simple rhetoric, the US president wants to control its critical mineral resources so that it can consolidate its own supply chain dominance and promote protectionist goals. As per all things Trump, Ukraine should not simply be a moralistic cause but should serve the American national interest, and clearly from their point of view it is a choice of life or death for their country.
Thus, if one hoped that Russia had made a diplomatic breakthrough amidst Trump's unconventional diplomacy, the Kremlin might be slightly disappointed. Again, ending the war for them is a choice between taking what they have and calling it quits, or grinding on at a high cost against a US funded Ukraine which is propped up indefinitely against gravity. The US is open to peace, much more or so than Biden ever was, and is likewise willing for now seemingly give Moscow the concession of blocking Ukraine's NATO membership, but we should assume that is about it and knowing Donald Trump, he is not going to keep that offer on the table forever.
Instead, I now believe Donald Trump will use the support of Ukraine, amidst other things, to try and put pressure on Russia to force them to end the war. In doing so, again we will see a classic Trumpian mode of negotiation whereby he will say and do reckless things to strike fear into the other side and force them to come to the table. It would not surprise me if he crosses more red-lines on weapon supplies and other forms of support than Biden did, simply framing it as supporting American jobs and industry. He will basically make the offer of ending the war a zero-sum one and put the message to Putin that the longer it rolls on, the worse it will get.
This of course is far a cry from the media insinuation that Trump is simply a paid agent of the Kremlin doing Putin's bidding, but this is where we're at with the poisoned political discourse of today's world, viewing everything in simplified and misleading absolutes. Of course Trump is, as evidence shows, more open to Putin and Russia than the democrats are, but we're now being reminded that he's not handing Ukraine to them on a silver platter.
Trump wants to end the war, favorably to US preferences, but that is not quite the total appeasement he is being accused of here. Russia hoped he would abandon Ukraine, he didn't, and now it's all about if they're prepared to make a deal or somehow hold out for better. I wouldn't bet on it that much.
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Opinion | There is a Taiwan confrontation bubbling, look at the signs
Opinion | There is a Taiwan confrontation bubbling, look at the signs
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