By Angelo Giuliano
The raid unfolds
In the early hours of Jan. 3, 2026, US special operations forces executed a large-scale raid in Caracas, supported by an estimated 150 aircraft, including heavy-lift Chinooks, Black Hawks, and fighter escorts. The operation targeted the presidential residence and resulted in the reported seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. According to initial accounts, the couple was removed from their bed while still in pajamas, blindfolded, zip-tied, and rapidly exfiltrated from sovereign territory. The pair is believed to have been transported first to the U.S.-controlled naval base at Guantánamo Bay, with subsequent plans to transfer them to New York for trial in the Southern District Court on federal charges including conspiracy to traffic cocaine and violations of a 1934 U.S. firearms statute.
Overt and undeniable
This was not a deniable or covert action. It was overt, deliberate, and carried out with the full visibility of the world's most powerful military, marking one of the most flagrant acts of state-sponsored abduction and direct regime-change intervention in modern Latin American history.
The silence of the defenses
Venezuela maintains a sophisticated air-defense network: Russian-supplied S-300 surface-to-air missiles, Buk-M2 batteries, integrated radar coverage, and shoulder-fired weapons. Its armed forces have trained extensively for low-altitude helicopter incursions over urban areas. Yet multiple waves of U.S. helicopters reportedly flew at treetop level across densely populated districts of the capital without encountering visible resistance. No missile launches, no radar-guided intercepts, no widespread small-arms fire—just an eerie silence that has stunned observers and triggered intense speculation about whether this reflected catastrophic command failures, internal compromise, deliberate stand-down orders, or the collapse of a previously negotiated political arrangement.
The failed back-channel deal
Multiple independent sources with knowledge of recent high-level diplomatic back-channel contacts have confirmed that, in the weeks leading up to the raid, U.S. representatives proposed a managed transition. The reported terms offered President Maduro a face-saving exit: step aside voluntarily in exchange for a smooth handover to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who already controls key levers of the economy, PDVSA (the state oil company), and much of the institutional apparatus. The arrangement was presented as clean and uncontested—no civil war, just a seamless transition. When this offer was reportedly rejected, the military option was executed.
Rodríguez takes the helm
Following the raid, Delcy Rodríguez was swiftly sworn in as acting president. In her first national address, she condemned the incursion as an act of "pure gangsterism" while assuring the Venezuelan people that the core revolutionary principles and strategic direction of the Bolivarian Republic would remain unchanged.
Dismissal of the opposition
Senior U.S. officials, in a separate public appearance, dismissed prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado, stating she lacked sufficient domestic legitimacy and internal support to govern effectively. They confirmed working-level contacts had already been established with Delcy Rodríguez, described in unusually direct terms as someone expected to align closely with U.S. strategic and economic priorities.
Chavismo endures
Despite the removal of President Maduro, the broader institutional framework of Chavismo—the revolutionary movement founded by Hugo Chávez—appears largely intact:
- The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) continues to function without paralysis.
- Major sectors of the armed forces have maintained public discipline and cohesion.
- Grassroots colectivos have mobilized in defense of the Bolivarian project.
- Senior military figures, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello—who commands significant loyalty among officers and the popular base—have been visibly active since the raid.
- Cabello has appeared alongside armed supporters, countering rumors of internal collapse.
Symbolic destruction
U.S. forces also deliberately struck and damaged the mausoleum housing Hugo Chávez's remains at the Cuartel de la Montaña—the most revered symbolic site of the Bolivarian Revolution—while leaving the wider Chavista power structure largely undisturbed.
The "Donroe Doctrine" returns
In the immediate aftermath, U.S. leadership revived the Monroe Doctrine, rebranded lightheartedly as the "Donroe Doctrine," and declared intentions to assume direct management of Venezuela's oil sector, operate it "judiciously," and generate substantial profits. These statements frame the action as a legitimate reclamation of resources tied to historical American involvement in Venezuela's petroleum industry, reviving a longstanding pattern of U.S. efforts to reassert control over Venezuelan energy resources stretching from the 1948 coup under Truman through repeated regime-change campaigns since the Chávez era.
Drug charges and hypocrisy
The legal justification centers on alleged leadership of the "Cartel of the Suns"—a term from the pre-Chávez period describing corrupt military officers involved in narcotics trafficking, reportedly initially established and exploited by U.S. intelligence agencies at that time. Notably, the same New York federal court district recently convicted former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández of running a narco-state—yet the U.S. executive branch has since pardoned him, publicly characterizing the prosecution as politically motivated persecution.
A message to the left and beyond
The action is widely seen as a deliberate signal to the Latin American left—including governments in Cuba, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Colombia—as well as to Iran, Russia, and China. Financial markets reacted swiftly: within hours, major hedge funds, defense contractors, and technology firms were reportedly organizing delegations to explore investment opportunities in Venezuela's energy, infrastructure, and defense sectors.
Unresolved questions
Uncertainty persists about the true nature of the January 3 events—whether they represent the violent enforcement of a collapsed back-channel agreement, exploitation of internal factional tensions, or unilateral power projection. What is clear is that the removal of President Maduro has not yet fractured the political, military, institutional, or popular foundations of Chavismo.
The decisive question now is whether the United States can convert this tactical success into lasting strategic dominance over Venezuela's resources and political direction—without triggering a broader regional or global backlash.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Angelo Giuliano:
Opinion | China and Venezuela: The sad reality of realpolitik – the oil will keep flowing
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