By Angelo Giuliano
The unpredictable present
As of January 2026, Venezuela stands at a crossroads. The dramatic events of the past days have removed Nicolás Maduro from power following U.S. military action, leaving the country's immediate political future uncertain. No one can say with confidence who will ultimately consolidate authority in Miraflores Palace in the coming weeks, months, or even years. Transitional arrangements, opposition figures, or new coalitions could emerge amid ongoing instability, international pressure, and domestic divisions. Promises of renewal and change echo through the streets of Caracas, yet the path forward remains shrouded in ambiguity.
The enduring economic truth
Despite this uncertainty, one harsh reality persists, rooted in the cold logic of realpolitik. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves—estimated at over 300 billion barrels of mostly heavy, extra-heavy crude. This resource is not easily refined, but it aligns perfectly with the massive, specialized refineries in China. For nearly two decades, China has positioned itself as the most reliable and consistent buyer of Venezuelan oil.
Beginning in the mid-2000s under Hugo Chávez and continuing through Nicolás Maduro's tenure, China extended more than $60 billion in financing through mechanisms like the China Development Bank and the China-Venezuela Joint Fund. These were classic oil-backed loans: Venezuela committed to delivering large volumes of crude directly to Chinese entities, often at pre-agreed or discounted prices, in lieu of cash repayments. At their peak, agreements targeted up to one million barrels per day, though actual flows varied due to production challenges and sanctions. Even under intense U.S. pressure and restrictions, China remained the primary destination, receiving the majority of Venezuela's exports—often rerouted through intermediaries.
This arrangement provided Venezuela with essential funds for infrastructure and development when Western financing dried up. For China, it secured a long-term supply of heavy crude vital to its energy needs, while advancing pragmatic economic ties in Latin America.
The practical imperative ahead
Whoever eventually holds power in Venezuela will confront the same unforgiving economic necessities. The country requires revenue to stabilize its finances, rebuild shattered infrastructure, and address deep social needs. Oil remains the only major exportable asset in abundance. Selling it is not optional—it's essential for survival and recovery.
China has demonstrated its ability to adapt to political shifts elsewhere. In Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024, Beijing paused initially but soon resumed quiet engagement. By mid-2025, investment discussions advanced, including deals for industrial zones in Homs and Damascus, showing how business can continue once stability allows, without ideological preconditions.
The long game of resources
We cannot predict Venezuela's next leaders or the precise shape of its government in the near term. Flags may change, speeches may shift, alliances may realign. Yet the underlying dynamics endure: resources seek markets, debts seek resolution, and mutual economic interests find ways forward.
Governments rise and fall. Leaders come and go. Headlines flare and fade.
But the oil will keep flowing—to the buyer who waits patiently, adjusts pragmatically, and prioritizes the deal over the drama.
This is the inconvenient, painful truth of realpolitik: in the end, economics often outlasts politics.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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