By Angelo Giuliano
The Trump administration's ceasefire push after Iran's attack wasn't driven by Israeli strength or a sudden turn to peace. Trump is no man of peace; this was a calculated move to save an ally losing a crippling war of attrition to Iran's strategic depth and military-industrial capacity. The ceasefire was a lifeline, enabling the US to shift from costly, overextending direct confrontation with Iran to intensifying its existing hybrid warfare campaign for regime change, indirectly weakening China by targeting its key BRICS, BRI, and energy partner, while gradually directing more focus to the paramount priority: countering China.
Israel's breaking point: Attrition defeat loomed
Behind boasts of high interception rates lay a brutal truth: Israel was being strategically exhausted. Iran's massive drone and missile barrage, though largely countered by a coalition (US, UK, France, Jordan), depleted Israel's costly, finite air defense interceptors (Arrow, David's Sling, Patriot). Each interception eroded stockpiles, advancing Iran's attrition strategy.
The asymmetry was stark: Iran's vast strategic depth, population, and self-reliant military-industrial complex enabled it to produce missiles and drones at a scale Israel couldn't match. Israel's smaller economy, limited reserves, and reliance on imported US systems left it vulnerable. Reports indicated critically low interceptor stocks, with offensive capabilities dwindling. Continued strikes risked collapsing Israel's defenses, as damage to the Nevatim airbase proved Iran's penetration capability. Trump's ceasefire was an emergency halt to attrition, securing time for US-funded rearmament—a calculated rescue, not a peace gesture.
Ceasefire's strategic purpose: Intensifying hybrid warfare, targeting Iran to weaken China
The ceasefire's immediate aim was halting Israel's losses. Its broader purpose was twofold:
- Stabilizing Israel: Enabling rearmament to preserve Israel as a platform against Iran.
- Escalating hybrid warfare for regime change: Direct kinetic war with Iran would be an overreach—too costly and tying up US resources, diverting focus from China. The ceasefire allows the US to intensify its ongoing hybrid warfare campaign against Iran with heightened military pressure (via Israel), stricter sanctions, deeper isolation, cyberattacks, covert operations, and leadership demonization—tactics honed against Libya and Syria. Iran will face this escalated assault, aimed at regime change or chaos. Disrupting Iran indirectly attacks China, a vital BRICS member, Belt and Road cornerstone, and key energy supplier to Beijing. This calculated move preserves resources for the escalating China focus.
China as the paramount priority, Iran as a secondary target
The US sees China as the sole peer competitor threatening its dominance, and Trump's strategy prioritizes this challenge above all. Over time, more US focus will shift to China, building naval power, next-gen tech, Indo-Pacific alliances, and Taiwan's defenses. Intensifying hybrid warfare against Iran aligns with this pivot by targeting a key Chinese ally without kinetic costs. Destabilizing Iran undermines China's strategic partnerships and energy security, weakening Beijing's global position. Preserving Israel avoids US ground commitments, ensuring resources flow to the Pacific. Every asset spent in the Middle East undermines the growing China-centric strategy.
Israel's role in the China-First strategy
The ceasefire is a calculated step in a strategy gradually prioritizing China, while intensifying hybrid warfare to destabilize Iran and weaken China:
- Ceasefire (attrition halt): Saved Israel, enabling rearmament to pressure Iran without direct US conflict.
- Hybrid warfare escalation: Intensifies the low-cost campaign (sanctions, cyber, covert ops) to disrupt Iran, targeting China's BRICS, BRI, and energy interests.
The core calculus: The US cannot afford a kinetic war with Iran while gradually redirecting focus to China. Iran's depth against Israel exposed this limit. Intensifying hybrid warfare pressures Tehran, indirectly hitting China, without diverting from the paramount China challenge.
Conclusion
The ceasefire wasn't peace; it was a calculated intervention to save Israel from Iran's superior depth. It enables Trump to preserve Israel, intensify hybrid warfare for regime change in Iran to disrupt China's key ally, and gradually shift focus to countering China. Israel's near-collapse forced this leaner strategy, targeting Tehran to weaken Beijing while prioritizing China containment.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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