By Tom Fowdy
Donald Trump has spoken on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The phone call has sent political shockwaves, no longer is Moscow in the total diplomatic isolation it faced in the Western world when it invaded Ukraine in 2022. It has been described as a hammer blow to Ukraine, which is now anxious it may be left out of the process as the two leaders agreed to "end the war" and seek a peaceful solution.
This was never the plan, certainly not in London and definitely not with the preceding US president. The Biden administration had fixated itself on a zero-sum absolutism that Ukraine ought to have a future in NATO no matter what and they should support them "as long as it takes." The Western media were sold an entourage of lies that Putin would ultimately be defeated and that Kyiv would ultimately regain its territory.
Of course, we must concede that for all the costs they've endured, Russia has failed to deal a knockout blow on Ukraine and that his initial invasion plan aiming for a quick capitulation was botched, terribly. The ramifications of these failures saw Moscow drawn into what is now a three-year war of attrition that has seen them hold on to a swathe of territory around the east of the country, but at a considerable cost, and certainly not enough to have made Kyiv's ultranationalist leadership back down.
Indeed, Ukraine has been floated indefinitely on Western military aid, with Russia unable to make the strategic gains to cut this off, as Western debates have raged on in regard to whether money should continue to flow to Kyiv. Trump's administration and backers have been critical of this, but I am skeptical about whether they would "cut them off." Perhaps Trump will keep doing it and depict it as a deal for American jobs, or get "natural resources", who knows, yet still one thing that is certain amidst it all is that the Biden legacy approach of "as long as it takes" and "in NATO" is now over.
This has rattled the other side of the Atlantic, not least because Britain has been the most fanatical backer of Ukraine throughout the entire conflict. The BBC has blasted "Ukraine is winning" propaganda on a megaphone whenever it gets the chance, even when the stories age poorly, reporting every piece of misinformation from Kyiv as fact. Similarly, documented leaks, as shown in the Times, reveal how Britain led covert ops supporting Ukraine against Russia, such as sinking ships and more.
The UK has done this despite the colossal cost it has brought to its own economy, crippling it with surging costs of living, leading to a surge of crime, and budget cuts to the welfare state and other services. Thus, it should not surprise you that Britain has become a rare voice of objection to the administration's policy and has diplomatically realigned itself with Europe to demand the US give Russia no serious concessions on the conflict. Their position is that Russia's gaining from the conflict jeopardizes European security, something of course that is not a priority for Trump.
This has set the stage for a transatlantic diplomatic struggle, against a Europe that wants to back Ukraine favorably and an America that just wants to end the war to serve its priorities elsewhere (China). From this, as has been hinted, it is likely the Trump administration will now use its support of the conflict as leverage to extract concessions from Britain and Europe, This may include compliance on matters related to China, a demand NATO states increase their spending, more purchases from the US-Military Industrial Complex and of course, trade concessions too under the threat of tariffs. Trump has always played hardball with Europe, and he is again here.
Russia has been let back in from the cold, ending years of nonsensical hopes from various political and analytical circles that the war would cripple Putin's regime and isolate it for eternity. Rather than being desperate, he has been correct that the West would ultimately come to him first, and they have. We don't know his timeline, we shouldn't guess, but surely he will take the chance to end it within these four years before the Democrats return.
For Ukraine, this will ultimately crush their morale. Peace with Russia will unavoidably delegitimize and weaken the ultranationalist state that has consolidated, one which pledged full liberation of its territory, the defeat of Moscow, and alignment with NATO at all costs, gambling on Western backing to do so. This looks naïve now, but I've no doubt that they will fight for every single inch right until the very end, knowing that whatever they are made to agree to, even without being the aggressor, will be akin to a Treaty of Versailles outcome, while western critics, of course, will point to the Munich Agreement.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | The demolition of USAID is about realism and 'America First' not anti-foreign aid
Opinion | The disintegration of International law
Opinion | Trump's 'US first' Doctrine over Latin America
Opinion | A more pragmatic Trump, or speaking too soon
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