By Tom Fowdy

The Donald Trump administration is pursuing a foreign policy tailored towards affirming exclusive dominance over the western hemisphere by force and pushing out the influence of China. Within just two weeks or so of taking office, the President has forced Canada and Mexico to submit to his terms under the threat of tariffs, coerced Panama to leave the Belt and Road initiative and reinitiated harsher policies against Venezuela and Cuba. I had predicted these policies accurately before he took office, and it is very much in line with expectations. Trump is pursuing a Monroe Doctrine for the 21st century.

The Monroe Doctrine has been a concept or paradigm of American foreign policy dated back to President James Monroe, who having seen Spanish Dominions in North America break up into a cohort of independent states, stated that the Western Hemisphere would be the exclusive "backyard" of the United States and that it would actively intervene against the efforts of other foreign powers at the time, Britain, and France, from meddling in the continent.

In other words, the United States had declared its dominance over the Americas as a core element of its national security and national interest, and has repeatedly sought to use various means of diplomacy, regime change and even force, to maintain that position, seeking to remove regimes in the region that are deemed hostile or antagonistic to the US. This has been the underlying principle of American containment policies aimed at countries such as Cuba, as well as the initiator of many other conflicts and regime changes. Although this eased slightly during the post-cold war period as America had no serious competitors, it has ultimately returned in the new age of Geopolitical competition, starting with the first Trump administration.

Although Trump's actions appear to be erratic, random, and reckless in terms of the general media and public narrative, they have a very clear strategy and goal attached to them, to use America's capabilities and leverage to force countries in the region to submit to American preferences and interests accordingly, and stomp out the influence of China from the western hemisphere. In particular, they are strongly linked to protectionist policies, the idea that the region should primarily serve American economic interests and moreover that the United States should exercise full dominance over regional supply chains in aspects such as critical minerals. This is also a key motivation behind US demands over Greenland, which again appears silly and irrational, but has an overriding strategic logic behind it.

Such protectionism was already the policy of the previous Trump Presidency, who demanded the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) be revised to add a "poison pill" clause, which specifies that the US can pull out of the entire agreement at will should any of its members enter a free trade agreement with a "non-market economy" (China). In pursuing such trade conflict, there is an overwhelming imbalance of power stacked in Washington's favor. The US after all, is the largest and most critical economy in the region. It is the consumer, while Mexico and Canada are dependent on exports to America. If the US makes demands, it gets what it wants quickly.

In pursuing these conflicts, Trump's personal style is to utilize dramatic exaggerations, if not superfluous claims, to do so, namely the guise of the fentanyl "epidemic," border security and of course the misleading claim China is militarily occupying the Panama Canal. They are closely followed by a "MAGA Imperialist" logic by his support base, as I have discussed before, and the idea of the United States expanding its territory is not truly a taboo idea. Hence, Trump openly treats calls countries as subordinates, vassals, or future parts of the United States to be.

Still, taking these claims at face value are ultimately a distraction from the policy logic behind it. Marco Rubio, who heads Trump's State Department, is ultimately more strategic, hence within a week he's got Panama to exit China's belt and road agreement. This should be a sign of things to come, the administration will work hard to try and roll back Beijing across Latin America and surely in its approach to Canada and Mexico will want to stop them from being loopholes for China to enter the American market or utilize their critical mineral resources. In tandem with this, Rubio will also increase hostility towards Cuba and Venezuela.

In a nutshell, the US sees the Western hemisphere as its exclusive reserve and sphere of dominance. This region will become the "bottom line" of its economic logic, with the administration seeking to transform it more readily in the centre of a American dominated trade system, backed up by protectionist policies which effectively exclude competitors.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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