Opinion | The first days of Trump's foreign policy

By Tom Fowdy

Donald Trump has pursued his first few days returning to the office with resolute action, as the BBC put it, he's "come out swinging". We have already discussed the many executive orders he has blasted through, all of which were to be expected, but what is happening on the world stage exactly? While Trump's statements on tariffs have been very much predictable, including towards China, one should also pay attention to the activity of Marco Rubio, his Secretary of State, Marco has much less publicity due to the fanfare being around the President, very busy.

Marco Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State was never good news from my perspective. While Trump is personally pragmatic in his willingness to negotiate with other countries, make deals, and avoid moralistic crusades in his communications, Marco Rubio is the opposite of that because he has a reputation as one of the biggest foreign policy hawks in Washington D.C. When he was put before the Senate for his confirmation, the vote was unanimous at 99-0 (the missing '1' being himself).

Rubio is hawkish on pretty much every single issue going, although I also note he is smart and prudent in following political currents, does modify his positions carefully, and is not an insufferable ignoramus like Senators such as Tom Cotton who just spouts nonsense and doesn't know what he's talking about. Rubio advocates a strong foreign policy, a strategic one, one of course I have many disagreements with, but not let's say a completely "stupid" one. Because of this he has the adaptability to be a competent Secretary of State from the American point of interest, unlike some of Trump's previous disastrous choices such as Mike Pompeo, and isn't going to push a religious extremist agenda.

On the first State Department briefing he offered, Rubio called for a "pragmatic foreign policy" that "advances America's national interests." Coming into office, he held a meeting with the quad countries, India, Japan, and Australia, within the first day. Here, he called for a "free and open Indo-Pacific." This is a sign of things to come, the Rubio State Department will naturally continue the legacy policy of enhancing alliances and cooperation in the region to try and strategically and militarily contain China. Under Biden, ironically enough, the quad weakened due to a fallout with New Delhi. However, the Trump administration will not interfere in contentious issues in India and seek to improve the relationship, with Modi appealing to Trump's "strongman" vibe.

When it comes to Ukraine, Marco will likely defer to Trump's underlying goal of making ending the war a priority. With the main focus being on Asia, it is very much this administration's strategic mindset to end, or at least freeze the conflict. I believe that the claim Trump is in cohorts with Russia and will give Moscow everything they want is misleading, partisan sensationalism. While it is true Trump is more pragmatic on Moscow and will obviously not advocate the hardline stance Biden's administration did, that doesn't mean he's going to give Putin Ukraine on a platter. As we found out in a recent social media post, Trump is threatening sanctions and tariffs on Moscow if they do not end the war. This of course isn't much use given how many sanctions are on the country already, and that Russia has no normal trade relations with America.

Instead, I refer to Trump's policy towards North Korea in 2017-2018 as a template for how things will look. The US aimed to raise pressure on Pyongyang to "denuclearize" through sanctions and bombastic threats, which were then followed by negotiations. It is worth noting however that because American foreign policy eschews strategic compromise, there was no deal with North Korea and thus the status quo was "frozen." I likewise believe that the US foreign policy establishment will not allow Trump to officiate full peace with Moscow and that a "freeze" of the conflict is the best he can offer, presumably with Congress making sanctions removal conditional on full withdrawal.

Once the war is frozen, Trump will then claim victory that he "ended it" and shift to his primary foreign policy agenda, which likewise after North Korea, he began focusing on China and Iran. Marco Rubio will be tough on Beijing, but I expect him to be catastrophic when it comes to Tehran. I also believe he will take a hardline against US adversaries in Latin America including on Cuba and Venezuela. It is going to be an interesting four years, yet ironically providing there are no unanticipated global disasters (you can never tell), one which will probably be more stable than the Biden legacy, despite Trump's signature unpredictability.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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