By Tom Fowdy

"Trump appears to ease up on China at start of presidency"- says the headline of an AP article. The piece makes the argument, citing experts, that Trump's presidency has struck a more pragmatic and sensible tone on China, despite the fact he has threatened additional tariffs on Beijing and of course, he has chosen an ultra-hawk in the form of Marco Rubio to lead the US State Department. "We look forward to doing very well with China and getting along with China," the article quotes Trump at the World Economic Forum, while also quoting an official from the Carter Center saying: "The signaling, at least from the election to the inauguration, seems to be more positive than has been expected before."

The idea of a more pragmatic Trump administration towards China is not completely baseless, and I have written about this myself, albeit with great caution. On a diplomatic level, while Trump can be blunt and abrasive, he is also oddly courteous in his own way and is respectful to Xi Jinping. It might be noted he invited him to his Presidential inauguration too. If one had to gauge Trump's actual motivations, he doesn't truly want a cold war laden confrontation with China as some of the most extreme NeoConservatives do, but he wants to be able to make deals which advance American economic interests, and engages in a way that the ultra-hawks actually don't like. This was always his plan before the pandemic uprooted everything.

Trump, however, might be the "leader" of the American state as per, but anyone who knows the US foreign policy machine recognizes that he is merely a cog within it, even if it is a big one at that. Trump can lead and shape US foreign policy through skillful political play, but within that paradigm there are many other actors pushing their agendas simultaneously, many who of course remain hungry for Cold War confrontation with Beijing. For Trump, this becomes a lesson in who to appoint and who to trust. In his last administration, the "Uyghur genocide" narrative was not created or directed by Trump himself but the Mike Pompeo State Department following his appointment in 2018.

In that administration, Trump had ultimately appointed too many NeoConservatives. While he had his own "economic nationalists" advocating trade war and deals with China, these individuals such as Pompeo, as well as Matthew Pottinger and John Bolton, were the ones who ultimately implemented this cold war paradigm that the Biden administration effectively embraced. It should be noticed within those four years Biden made no effort to seriously engage China whatsoever, which should be contrasted carefully with the deal making attitude of Trump. My biggest fear of course surrounding Trump's return has been, as above suggests, not the man himself but those in his cabinet, because even if Trump wants to engage, these figures do not.

Hence, I believe the jury is still out for Marco Rubio. I have been watching the State Department press releases carefully and already one can see Rubio has had the statements revised to emulate hostile language towards Beijing. They speak of "the CCP", "China's coercion" against various targets, etc, it is definitely one of an ultra-hawk. Yet on the other hand, even Rubio himself has publicly acknowledged the need to engage China. He is not the same as Mike Pompeo, who is a true fantasist who is widely loathed even by the President's own support base. Rubio of course, may become more aggressive if the opportunity presents it, so the key from China's side will not be to overtly upset Washington or politically compromise Trump in a way that he sees overt Anti-China politics as in his own benefit, as what was happened in 2020 with Covid and the "wolf warrior" era. Ultimately, however, I also believe it is far too early to judge the administration's intentions, it has only been in office a week. I believe that they will seek to focus on the Ukraine war first, then we finally might find out what they have in store in regards to China.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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