Opinion | Crunch time for TikTok

By Tom Fowdy

In four days time, TikTok will face a de-facto ban under American law which will not prohibit access to it entirely but will force it to be removed from US app stores such as Apple and Google. As it stands, TikTok is the most influential social media app on the planet. Based in Singapore, but owned by the Chinese company Bytedance, McCarthyist American congressmen ultimately spun paranoid scare stories that the application represented a threat to national security, without due evidence, and subsequently passed a law last year affirming that it must be sold or faced restrictions.

It is unfortunate that the law was designed to be legally bulletproof, and it seems highly likely, contrary to initial expectations, that the right-wing leaning Supreme Court would overturn it despite the complications it has for freedom of speech, with the lower courts having already rejected the case. Thus, the clock is now ticking down. Bytedance has repeatedly denied the consideration that the app is for sale, and China's government has also rejected the idea. However, when things come down to a crunch, that is when it is often time for compromise and meeting halfway.

If TikTok were to be "lost" the political fallout would be toxic, there is no doubt about it. You are prohibiting access to the number one application in the world that was downloaded by almost 200 million Americans, especially so among young people. That is a politically unpopular move and one which generates resentment. This alone has been enough for Donald Trump to eye an opportunity, and this is why, despite a botched attempt by him to try and ban the application in 2020 and force a similar sale, to decided that he, in fact, opposes the "ban" to curry favor with younger voters and campaign himself on there.

One should note the timing that the restrictions are set to come in place, Jan. 19, which is exactly one day before Trump's inauguration, thus the last day of the Biden presidency. This means that moving forward, the new administration has the right to lead the political narrative and consensus on whatever follows. Trump can be hardline, unpredictable, and aggressive, but he is also at heart a pragmatist providing things go in his favor, which is why many Washington NeoConservatives are uncomfortable with him on foreign policy.

Because of this, there is a possibility that Trump will seek a deal and presumably claim an early political win for himself. This could include middle-ground compromises such as TikTok selling its US-based operations, or data, to a domestic owner so that the debates over "national security" and "spying" are settled and thus it is not a "foreign adversary controlled app." It seems unrealistic of course that TikTok would ever sell its entire product and franchise to an American owner to the point they lose everything, and it has already been clear that is off the table.

Because of this, the mainstream media have begun touting the idea, albeit not confirmed by anyone, that Elon Musk could buy TikTok. Elon of course is seen as a politically acceptable owner for China due to his free speech policies, and of course, for the American right, will also end their obvious disdain for the platform's astroturfing of content critical of Israel. However, I would say the political consequences of Elon Musk owning TikTok would be absolutely disastrous because he will arguably become the single most influential political voice on the entire planet and will use it to force through arguably far-right politics on an industrial scale as he has done with X. We must be honest that such an outcome is consequentially dangerous all over the world and would truly usher in a "New Conservative era" (which is slowly emerging as it is). But, going back to reality, TikTok claimed that talk of Elon doing this is "fiction" and ultimately, speculation is rife. Over the next few days and weeks, we are about to find out what TikTok's fate will be. Few expected it would come this far, but here we are, China and the US must ultimately find a compromise between the app's right to operate and America's insistence on digital sovereignty. I personally think TikTok will be salvaged in one way or another, but the devil is in the details as to what form that will take, so let's wait and see.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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