Opinion | The end of the liberal era

By Tom Fowdy

As of the time of writing, Donald Trump has effectively wrapped up his return to the White House. The former President prevailed in a number of key states and swept aside. By 6 am UK time the New York Times forecast had determined his probability of victory was over 95%. Already, centrist liberals throughout the world have entered a state of meltdown on social media, dooming amidst the dramatic consequences that are likely to follow his return. At the time, the Republican Party has also won control of the United States Senate too, meaning he will have a free hand to implement his agenda from January 2025. The rest of the world looks on, ominously.

I believe that the re-election of Donald Trump heralds the end of the "liberal era" in western politics, although it arguably already ended sometime sooner than that to be specific. What do I mean by the "liberal era" though, exactly? I refer to a period of politics defined from the 1980s to the late 2010s whereby progressive politics and ideological currents, including feminism, universalism, LGBT advocacy, multiculturalism, pro-globalization sentiment and free markets, broadly defined as "liberalism," held a hegemonic position over western politics and occupied an unchallengeable consensus, which subsequently began to break down around 2016-2017, before entering full-scale decline by 2020.

Parallel to the fraying of the liberal consensus, we have seen the rise of political polarisation, right-wing populism, nationalism, Conservatism, Anti-LGBT sentiment, Anti-Globalization and Protectionism and similar sentiments largely in reaction to this liberal trend, all which have brought about earthquake level political outcomes, including Trump's first victory, Brexit, as well as the rise of nationalist parties throughout continental Europe. On a government level, even if such parties have not taken power, we have concurrently seen more Anti-democratic and Illiberal policies come to fruition as a result of the breakdown of the consensus, which has seen a strengthening of the national security state in the form of growing censorship, politically motivated prosecutions, all of which intertwine with geopolitical conflict and a less secure international situation.

The causes of this political shift are multifaceted, and too complex to assess in a single op-ed, but I would list the following factors: The global financial crisis in 2008, the "end of prosperity" and thus the breaking of the Neoliberal socio-economic model implemented in the 1980s which underpinned liberalism's ascension, the rise of mass social media leading to political polarisation, fragmentation and radicalization, identity shifts caused by globalization and legitimated by liberalism, including mass immigration and multiculturalism in western countries, as well as transgender politics which appeared to change perceptions of LGBT cause. Then finally, the subsequent disintegration of American unipolarity into a new era of geopolitical competition marred by respective conflicts with Russia and China, creating insecurity, instability and paranoia at home and abroad.

Again, I want to emphasize that this broader structural shift is not solely, contingent on who wins and loses elections, because it is a whole of structure shift and a collapse of the political center ground. Thus, as the Biden administration leaves office, history will absolutely view it as an illiberal Presidency. However, that being said, the return of Donald Trump is a decisive factor given the unique obvious implications and magnitude he possesses as an individual. This, coupled with the entire US Congress now returning to Republican control, will pose dramatic consequences for American domestic politics and the world in general. One might note in particular the extent the "liberal elite" went to try and discredit him, which included every smear imaginable and even having him criminally convicted, a token of how bitterly toxic American politics has become.

Yet if a man, who in the words of centrist liberals, is a "convicted felon" and a so-called "rapist" can readily win an election as its President again, what does it tell us about their political ideals? And public sentiment at large? Ultimately, the era of liberalism has died with his re-election because the world was not the same the first time he became President, and why would be it again? All part of the "end of history thesis," the idealistic world where universal liberal rules would permanently and inevitably triumph is simply dead. The rationalist idea that access to "information" would lead to a harmonization of interests, and thus a natural progression of liberalism, is dead, and the idea that political conflict, war, authoritarianism, and thus ethno-nationalism were all things of the past has proven to be inherently foolish. The post-liberal era, as I said above, has already long been here, but today is its ultimate death kneel. Those who hoped for a "return to normality" with Kamala Harris ultimately done so in vain, and would have even if she won anyway, but who knows what comes next, as Donald Trump proves himself to be a man you shouldn't predict the demise of. He is back, and as is everything which accompanies him.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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