Opinion | The 'Putin bogeyman', narrative control and geopolitical competition over Europe

By Tom Fowdy

Over the past week or so, two critical votes were held in countries that have emerged as additional battlegrounds of Russia's geopolitical struggle with the west: Moldova and Georgia. Both states, former constituent republics of the USSR, have pro-western aligned heads of state who seek to integrate their countries into the European Union, a process that was accelerated with the Ukraine war. In Moldova, a referendum was held to place the aspiration to membership in the EU in its constitution. An extremely narrow margin at 50.35% saw the "yes" vote win, which was tipped by the overseas diaspora vote at the last moment despite, in practice, a solid majority inside of the country voting "no." The referendum came with widespread allegations of pro-Russian vote rigging nonetheless.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, a parliamentary election was held, whereby the pro-EU opposition was defeated by the governing "Georgian Dream," which is deemed pro-Russia. The country's pro-western president quickly cried foul and allegations of vote rigging were publicly weaponized almost immediately, with senior officials in the United States and EU calling for "transparency" and "Euro-Atlantic integration." The agenda is obvious, to essentially push the narrative that every time a result does not go in favor of what the western elite wants, to claim that the result has been effectively manipulated by the Kremlin and therefore, void.

This trait has already long been extended to western domestic politics itself for some years now, whereby unpopular outcomes in elections, or the victory of deemed "anti-establishment" figures or causes, are simply dismissed as being caused by "Russian interference." Most famously the Donald Trump administration from 2017-2021 was dogged with this, as well as that of Brexit in the United Kingdom. British mainstream liberals generally follow this cynical politics uncritically, dismissing everyone who does not fit their narrative of being an effective puppet of the Kremlin, even if there is no serious evidence. Although this ironically weaponized by liberals, its effects are in practice chilling pertaining to democracy because they serve to shut down debate, exert fear and police people's opinions.

In essence, it's a form of McCarthyism and its ridiculous because it depicts the Russian President as an omniscient, omnipotent force who is pulling the strings of the entire world by his own hands to the point of sheer absurdity. Sure, there is enough evidence to draw the conclusion the Kremlin absolutely engages in information warfare to try and secure its national interests in respective countries, yet it would be honest to say it is far less competent, effective, and even relevant than the "political bogeyman" it has become suggests. After all, if the Kremlin's operations were so powerful, it has been argued why wasn't it capable of simply bringing a Russia friendly regime to power in Ukraine, than to launch a devastating war?

If we understand the Ukraine war as a "last resort" then it would be logical to assume it does not have the sway or capability to subjugate the country in other ways, despite the fact it is a country that has high levels of corruption and a large Russian language base to manipulate. Yet, we are to assume in the next breath that the Kremlin is somehow managing to sway every western democracy, even the United States, in its favor. The narrative is nonsensical yet it has become conventional wisdom to allude such. For example, are we not going to scrutinize the fact that the pro-western leaders of Moldova and Georgia might have an incentive to say that the respective vote counts were rigged? Knowing that the west will take their claims at face value without any scrutiny whatsoever? It's a very easy game to play.

In summary, it has been the staple of the past decade or so for western leaders to increasingly assert "narrative control" over both mainstream media and social media, by various means, which is ironic given that their own actions far in fact exceed what the Kremlin is capable of. Thus, Russia and often China, have become bogeymen to police domestic politics to their liking and prevent wholesale changes to the status quo. When we view it like this, the era of geopolitical competition, more so akin to pre-1914 than the Cold War, has absolutely killed the golden age of liberalism and led to a consolidation of national security states in pursuit of the national interest. The west doesn't make it a secret that the events in Moldova and Georgia are essentially a contest between us and them, and aren't going to play by the rules to exert its respective influence. This itself is ironically a form of interference, which should never be lost track of when mass hysteria about Russia is being whipped up. The west have always been the first and foremost countries in history to meddle in other countries politics, unapologetically.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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