Opinion | The defining moment of 2024 is here

By Tom Fowdy

On the 5th of November, the United States will vote in its Presidential Election. They face a stark choice between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, and then Republican contender and previous President Donald Trump. Amidst a sharply polarised and divisive American politician environment, this election will be possibly one of the most significant ever in determining the country's historical trajectory and its relationship with the world.

Although early voting appears to be favoring Kamala Harris, I believe it is foolish to make any predictions given how breakneck it appears to be for all intents and purposes, with polls not providing any clear picture. There is no clear trend, no decisive frontrunner and therefore I genuinely believe the outcome could go either way and is thus unpredictable, which of course makes the event itself more dramatic and uncomfortable given the stakes are so high.

Overseas, most people look at the election in terms of America's foreign policy and its role in the world, a factor that is arguably the most consequential. The election of course has been rammed into a binary narrative that Donald Trump's "MAGA" foreign policy will swiftly herald a move to "isolationism" and forsake its allies, whereas Kamala Harris is obviously the savior of the multilateral international order who will continue the country's "revival" on the world stage and be heralded by "allies."

In particular, this comparison is juxtaposed with the Ukraine war scenario, where it is assumed Harris will continue the "status quo" policy of supporting Kyiv against Russia, whereas Trump, who is comically exaggerated as a "Russian asset" will seek to end it and throw Ukraine under the bus in the pursuit of peace with the Kremlin. This discourse has become psychologically entrenched in the minds of the media and public, thus seeing the re-election of Trump as essentially fatal to America's relationship with the European Union and other allies.

But I personally don't believe things are as simple, although I continue to maintain the position that a Trump administration on the world stage would be more disastrous, for everyone involved, as opposed to a Harris one for reasons I will set out later. First of all, the isolationist tendencies of Trumpism with respect to foreign policy are dramatically exaggerated. As much as Trump pursued an eccentric foreign policy in his first term by attempting to negotiate with countries such as North Korea, or even withdrawing US troops, in reality, his acts received massive pushback from the US establishment.

For all intents and purposes, he surrounded himself with staunch NeoConservatives and things took a very sharp turn downhill in 2018 when he appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State. This year, their influence saw him rip up the "Iran deal", initiate a trade war on China, begin the US tech war against Huawei and the State Department push the "Uyghur genocide narrative". Similarly, the US coerced its allies to do its bidding anyway. The Trump administration's foreign policy was very aggressive, but it was not disastrous in the way centrist liberals frame it.

After all, if his legacy was so bad, why were his policies largely embraced by Biden? The US executive does not act in a vacuum when it comes to the Foreign Policy machine, and that's why I also believe that while a Trump administration can be "non-compliant" in supporting Russia, it will never ever be allowed to make formal concessions regarding the war on Ukraine. Trump faced a backlash and rebellion for purely wanting to remove US troops illegally stationed in Northern Syria, never mind a bid to try and end the largest war in Europe since 1945. Congress will absolutely tie its hands on such a matter.

Yet on a domestic level, it cannot be overlooked that the return of a Trump presidency means chaos, conflict, and disarray for America and its reputation. His supporters will fathomably deny this is true, and perhaps it is fair to acknowledge there is "extreme bias" against him in some respects after I have long commented US politics is now fraught with extreme nastiness and confrontation, however, one must acknowledge his influence is toxic and represents the deterioration of America's political system. Thus, even if we can make arguments about the path US foreign policy will take, it is naïve to assume his return is in any way good for America. It is therefore because of this that the election will be a crucial moment in American history. A defeated Trump, at 78, means his Presidential ambitions are pretty much over for good, thus throwing the future of the MAGA movement into uncertainty. The world thus awaits with anticipated breath what will happen next.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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