Opinion | The China-India Reset is finally here
By Tom Fowdy
On Monday China and India finally agreed to de-escalate a military standoff on the border conflict deep into the Himalayas and implement a workable resolution. New Delhi's foreign ministry stated: "We reached an agreement on patrolling, and with that, we have gone back to where the situation was in 2020 and we can say... the disengagement process with China has been completed." The bitter skirmish on the border four years ago saw a dramatic deterioration in ties between New Delhi and Beijing as India sought to pivot towards the west and take advantage of Anti-sentiment for its own strategic gain. Now, this chapter has been closed and Narendra Modi is seeking to normalize with China, possibly meeting Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit.
My interpretation of this, as above might suggest, is that this is a conscious effort by India to change course. I have always assessed that India's "Anti-China" turn in those years, which involved the banning of hundreds of Chinese apps and the targeting of dozens of companies, was motivated by clear-cut opportunism than spontaneous conflict. Indian nationalists had grown to believe that China's dominance over global manufacturing and its growing clout over India's markets was a threat to its own economic and industrial development. Therefore, so it went, if New Delhi tilted towards the US and took advantage of the "Indo-Pacific" strategy to contain China, India could position itself as the fundamental "alternative" to China through its huge population size and labor force.
Envisioning this, Modi deliberately escalated tensions with China and provoked the border conflict accordingly, using the political theatre of that to justify a protectionist push away from Beijing. Four years later, it seems his government has made the decision to change course. First, it is wishful thinking for India to have challenged China's economic capabilities in the short term. There is a saying and that goes you must walk before you can run. India still substantially lags behind China in every single aspect of economic development and does so in much more unfavorable political circumstances. That is not to say India does not have the potential to become an industrial giant, but building the necessary infrastructure and capabilities to sustain an entire supply chain is easier said than done. It isn't as simple as sending people into a factory.
Second, India's own society is a stumbling block. This includes its caste system, its complex ethno-sectarian divides, the inability of certain regions to move beyond agrarian society and reform attempts by the government being divided. India is a chaotic and divided country that cannot match the heavily centralized prowess of the Chinese state. Hence, India has even struggled against smaller competitors for manufacturing, such as Vietnam and even Bangladesh. While Indian workers might be able to assemble an I-phone or such, the sophisticated production of specialist components, tools, all requiring relevant expertise and the means of producing them efficiently has meant that even as Modi grinds forward on Indian manufacturing, China has remained the dominant supplier and trade patterns between the two countries have not changed even throughout this period of tensions. India and China are interdependent.
Modi's government seems to have finally accepted this reality, and recognizes India should adjust its strategy to make itself a "gateway to the world" for Chinese products to circumvent tensions with the West, thus promoting Chinese investment "for India." In addition to that, geopolitical changes have also leaned on India's decision-making. The conflict in Ukraine produced a fundamental rift with the West as New Delhi has vowed to stick by Russia as a partner in terms of arms and energy. While the US and its allies have restrained from challenging India over this in the way they have with China, it has served as a reminder to them that India does not align with their strategic vision.
As this has happened, the Western embrace of India has also had negative consequences. Mass Indian migration to Canada has led to a political backlash, which has been made worse due to the conflict over an alleged assassination of a Sikh separatist, itself an extension of the ethno-sectarian issues stated above, resulting in the expulsion of diplomats. Likewise, India has failed in its mission to secure free trade agreements with Western countries, even those desiring of them such as the UK, precisely because it has made demands on relaxing visas conditional as part of the deal. Thus, India's attempts to engage with the West have led to little in terms of benefits, leading it to moderate its foreign policy once again. Nonetheless, it should be concluded that India will continue to be "strategically independent" in its approach to international affairs, aligning with none and attempting to be somewhat favorable to all. This always has been India's foreign policy doctrine since its independence. It will continue to engage with Russia, the United States, and China as it sees fit, swaying from side to side when necessary.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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