Opinion | The Canadian vassal
By Tom Fowdy
On the evening of August 26th Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be following the United States in introducing a 100% tariff on the import of Chinese-made (made, not just brands) electric vehicles into the country, as well as a 25% levy on steel. The move comes as Ottawa is attempting to position itself as an "alternative supply chain" for critical minerals and goods, despite its relatively weak industrial capacity, while in addition further demonstrating the sheer scale of the deterioration of Canada's relations with China which have never recovered since the US orchestrated the Meng Wanzhou saga in 2019, amongst other things.
Canada at present has no diplomatic engagement with China whatsoever now. Recently, an article was even published praising this outcome as some kind of "success", blaming China for everything. The total collapse of the Canadian relationship with China, with no route to recovery, puts it in stark contrast to the other Anglosphere nations of, Australia, Britain, New Zealand, and even the US itself. Although Washington is the sole aggravator of all hostility against China, it ultimately has the privilege to talk with Beijing on its own terms, while Canberra and London have made efforts to roll back counterproductive policies from previous right-wing governments to place emphasis on stable engagement, with New Zealand (even in its current pro-US tilt) always being open to Beijing.
Yet Ottawa is the odd one out. This is an unusual phenomenon at face value given Justin Trudeau is an extraordinarily liberal individual, while Canada is in fact the culturally most integrated western to China owing to the huge influx of Chinese migrants which comprise 5% of the population, although this has also been a source of yellow peril too. When it comes to foreign policy, it seems Ottawa has been completely subjugated by the interests of the United States and being in a weaker position, is not able to dictate the flow of its own direction at all. As per above, London, Auckland, and Canberra may also be subjected to US interests, yet they have the ability to slightly to deviate course or act with nuance if it is in their fundamental interests to do so. Canada, does not.
Why is this? First of all, geography. Canada, although the 2ndlargest country in the world geographically, is for practical purposes a smaller country with a population of 40 million. More specifically, 90% of this population live within a 200km radius of the border of the United States, with 50% of the total population being concentrated beneath the 45th parallel in a small enclave surrounded by the North East USA, where all its largest cities are located. Cutting out the enormous wilderness of snow and ice to the north, Canada is for all intents and purposes a smaller country in proximity to the USA. Therefore, it is wholly dependent on the United States economically which constitutes its single largest export market. After all, Canada is a country that is thin on people, but large on natural resources.
Next, where are Canada's largest seaports for its exports? While Canada's largest port is the Port of Vancouver for the Pacific, and therefore significant for China, it is worth mentioning that Canada is otherwise existentially reliant on not its own seaports, but those of the United States itself. If one looks at the map of Canada's freight rail network, one will notice instantly that it is connected with the United States and that Ottawa has the port of Orleans as one of its biggest shipping routes! Given of course that Vancouver is far away to the west and that Louisiana offers a relatively straight route to its major cities, you subsequently realize that the entire Canadian trading nexus is contingent on the United States itself, and therefore Washington's goodwill.
Thus, it goes without saying that as a result of these geographic and economic arrangements, political realities subsequently follow. Canada is locked into the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is also exclusively dominated and has its terms set by the USA as its biggest consumer and producer, therefore Canada ultimately has no sovereignty over its own trade and economic policies. Canada is by geography, integrated with the USA, but is integrated, as a weaker partner, therefore the US controls the flow of direction. This, combined with Canada's Anglosphere exceptionalist ideology, its history of subtle elitism and its traditional loyalty to the US, all mean that Ottawa is the weakest of the Anglosphere countries in respect to its relationship with China.
Canada has no ability to steer the flow of its own trade relations with Beijing amidst NAFTA and US protectionism on top of it, and owing to the controversies generated by the US amidst Huawei and other things, has no political will even to try and improve relations. Likewise, China sees absolutely zero point and zero incentive in doing so either. If the Conservative Party of Canada gains power in the future we should expect things to ultimately get even worse. For the world's second-largest country, Canada occupies in fact an incredibly weak geostrategic position, one so weak that even New Zealand, an island nation of 5 million people, is capable of a more autonomous foreign policy.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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