Opinion | The Merry go round of Japanese Prime Ministers
By Tom Fowdy
Earlier this week Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would be resigning. Marred by a series of scandals within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), falling personal popularity and and a lackluster economy, his decision to quit is hardly unconventional in the face of Japanese politics, yet it will not in any way be a political game changer. The LDP have always managed to avoid persistent unpopularity by holding an unofficial monopoly over the politics of Japan and subsequently relying on a suppressed opposition, combined with an ability to astutely manipulate public opinion with tactical elections, in order to stay perpetually in power. Kishida's departure essentially means nothing.
It was following the defeat of the empire in Japan in World War II that the status quo regime was not brutally prosecuted and held to accountability as it were in Germany, rather, in the face of the emerging Cold War the United States made the decision to effectively maintain the status quo in the country in order to offset the threat of Communism and thus maintain an ability to project military power into East Asia. Thus, as seen in a famous photo with Emperor Hirohito standing with Douglas MacArthur, the US would essentially become the new patrons over Japan simply readjusting the country's constitution, than upending the status quo.
In doing so, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan emerged as the primary political force of the country and a new vessel for the empire era elite and middle classes. The LDP secured its power by becoming the vanguard of anti-communism and fusing this to Japan's postwar economic recovery and boom. This allowed the party to maintain the status quo as Japan transformed again into an economic and technological power, thus affirming its monopoly. Although the opposition would manage to gain power on two occasions amidst Japan's economic struggles from the end of the Cold War onwards, the deep penetration of the LDP through all organs of the country ensured they didn't last very long.
From the 21st century, however, the LDP has increasingly become associated with the push to revise Japan's postwar constitution and remilitarise the country. The most significant figure in this effort was Abe Shinzo, but even after his death and assassination this legacy has became a mainstream consensus, hence why he was honoured by a state funeral. In particular, the LDP eyes political opportunism in hyping up the threat from North Korea, as well as that they claim from China, as a convenient scapegoat to push for its respective national revisionism and salvage their popularity.
Abe Shinzo for example, actively weaponised the DPRK issue as much as he can and even called an election right in the middle of the North Korea crisis of 2017, landing himself with a supermajority. The LDP have mastered the art of weaponising and exploiting crisis accordingly. This included switching to an emergency broadcast every time North Korea fired a missile, the use of emergency alerts amongst other things. As the DPRK issue subsided emphasis has been placed squarely on China, and Japan has likewise sought to exploit American goals to expand in the so-called Indo-Pacific in order to create political space for rearmament.
This culture of inducing threats has allowed the LDP to offset domestic unpopularity and scandals simply by having a sizeable portion of the public vote for them every time, calling
tactical and opportunistic elections with an opposition who's wings have been clipped. Thus this has also produced a "merry go round" of Prime Ministers who come and go readily on the political principle that it the party ought to stay in power, they should stand aside when things are going downhill. Only Abe himself appeared to defy that trend.
In this case, we should expect little change from whosoever is chosen to replace Fumio Kishida as the Prime Minister of Japan. We should expect the foreign policies of the new LDP leader to be exactly the same, including encouraging antagonism of China, pushing for closer ties with the US, Taiwan and South Korea, forming or supporting regional groups targeting Beijing while also seeking to remilitarise Tokyo as a whole.
Presumably, when the moment comes a new general election will likewise be called and the LDP, to nobody's surprise, will be elected yet again and whatever grievances people had will be history. Japan may be a parliamentary democracy on paper, but in practice it is very much a one party state whereby stability and anti communism become enablers of the status quo.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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