Opinion | A quiet patch in US-China relations
By Tom Fowdy
For all the drama that has characterized the past few years, US-China relations have been awfully quiet and uneventful over the past month or so. Although there is the usual China-bashing from various political figures, there have been no high-level incidents or escalations in tensions for the most part. Even as the potential threat of Donald Trump looming remains on the horizon, there has been an odd sense of "quiet" about things.
Beijing has also been conspicuously silent, although this is to be expected because it is always China's policy never to "rock the boat" during an election year with the added consequence of making things worse for itself. However, it all nonetheless paints a stark contrast to the year 2020, whereby the Trump administration deliberately threw its relations with China under the bus in an attempt to salvage the election unsuccessfully amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, it appears that both parties in the United States have ultimately been consumed and distracted by domestic political events. In the US news cycle, the flow of developments has been dramatic and unpredictable. Biden's shocker of a debate performance, followed by the calls for him to drop out, followed by the attempt on Donald Trump's life and then Biden in fact deciding to quit after all and endorse Kamala Harris, has been a shock to the system for everyone. We were all but expecting another Trump Presidency, then suddenly he is on the ropes again. Thus, the GOP are attempting to discredit Kamala in every way possible.
On the international stage, the United States has also been significantly distracted by the events in the Middle East. Israel's assassination of Hamas's leader in Tehran, and Iran's call for a massive retaliation, have seen America undertake a huge diplomatic and military effort in the region in an attempt to prevent the breakout of a wider war. The Biden administration, recognizing that the Israel-Gaza issue remains a massive liability amongst their own constituency, is also determined to try and draw a close to this brutal conflict so that it won't overshadow the election campaign and cause a backlash amongst young voters. Biden wants to be able to say he clenched a ceasefire and thus "brought peace", as much as Israel has other ideas.
With these domestic and international distractions, China has for the time being become a backburner issue. The Biden administration likely deems it to be politically unfavorable to escalate tensions with Beijing during this time as it will only empower the worst hawks within the Republican Party, thus the US has significantly toned down its provocations on the country's "sensitive issues." Similarly, one of the worst US-China flashpoints that emerged in the South China Sea, also tentatively calmed down with a new agreement being clinched with the Philippines. Again, the US likely gave its blessing to Manilla to compromise, seeking to avoid a crisis at this pivotal time.
In Beijing, China likewise welcomes a cooling of tensions with the United States so that it can focus on attaining stability in international relations, promoting diplomacy, and seeking to steady its economy. Even throughout the worst scenarios, Beijing has sought to stabilize and carefully approach its relationship with the United States even if a full "course correction" is possible. While the mood is not optimistic, Beijing's desire to avoid the fundamental division of the international system, further decoupling, and also a coalition being built against it have all been strategic considerations of China. The Biden administration's foreign policy of course for the past three years has been premised on doing just that.
Despite this, we don't know how long this window of "cool" and "quiet" will last. US foreign policy can change unpredictably and according to domestic political needs, and a lot of that hinges on the election result come November. The return of Trump will be a disaster, yet the election of Kamala Harris would also be an enigma and nobody knows how it will play out. Yet what does seem certain is that in some form or another US competition with China will continue. It is far from over, it has just been put on "pause" while other things take the stage. Enjoy the peace while it lasts.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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