Opinion | China's strategy to hedge US containment

By Tom Fowdy

Yesterday, as Blinken concluded his trip to China, he was given an audience with leader Xi Jinping, who according to Xinhua, stated: "The common interests of the two countries should be valued, and their respective success is an opportunity instead of a threat to each other" and likewise that the two countries should co-exist and: "Neither side should try to shape the other side by its own will, still less deprive the other side of its legitimate right to development."

I was personally, surprised by the decision by Xi to grant an audience to Blinken, not least because I have already long made my opinion clear that the United States has done little to deserve it, and of course that there is little sincerity behind its words. However, what the meeting does signal is the enormous political weight China has decided to place on the event, and as such the message it intends to convey to the United States and its leadership. It could have very much ended as a minister-to-minister exchange, but it did not, Beijing has actively messaged its desire for détente in its struggle with the US.

China's diplomatic strategy concerning the United States, from the Post-Mao era, has in fact never involved confrontation or struggle. Within the period from 1978-2018, there may have been incidents and upsets, in which China has been firm on defending what it deems its "core interests", it has nonetheless always been very careful and reserved in how it deals with Washington, even now during what Qin Gang has described as "the lowest point in the relationship" since that normalisation commencing with Richard Nixon's visit in 1972. Despite the media sensationalism about assertiveness and so-called "wolf warrior diplomacy", Beijing is neither overbearing or confrontational.

This is because China's strategic thinking has always factored in the logic that it needs an open and stable international system in order to pursue its national development, and has rightfully for many decades, identified the United States as the largest potential liability to that. With China's primary domestic goal being economic growth, and that growth of course being premised on open ties with other countries in the form of trade and investment, particularly the US and those allied to it, Beijing has long sought to avoid direct antagonism of the US and being drawn into an "ideological competition"" to the extent of actively courting the conditions for its own containment, as much as this has been difficult to avoid in recent years.

In doing so, China has actively learnt from the lessons of the Soviet Union. The US won the Cold war against the USSR by locking it into a longstanding military struggle that it was unable to keep up with, while economically defeating it. The demise of the USSR came from its structural inability to facilitate change in favour of market dynamics, integrate itself with the wider world, and as such sustain economic growth momentum. Modern China of course has grown up in a different world, a globalised society where it is deeply intertwined with the US and its allies, yet without overlooking the reality that some in Washington intend to return to that Cold War mindset, the idea of cutting all integration and ties with Beijing to isolate it and therefore out compete it. In this sense, China has a very realistic view of its own weaknesses and limitations.

While China understands a full-blown US containment campaign, in the field of military, technology and diplomacy, has long been underway, it subsequently sees its best bet in not rocking the boat further, and subsequently stabilise relations with Washington, even as it pursues its own strategic options subtly. It must be noted of course, that this is not easy, as simple things such as "the balloon incident" can readily sweep the US away into a domestic political hysteria which crashes relations beyond anyone's control, or how certain politicians continue to sweep from the sidelines. Still, China places its faith in attaining underlying stability, even if it is impossible to amicable with the US, with the fundamental goal of ensuring things do not get feasibly worse than they presently are.

In doing so, diplomacy continues to be the primary strategic choice of China. The Ukraine war serves a sordid lesson as to how confrontation allows the US, and its principal NeoConservatives, to set the stage, roping allies under its control, expanding its military footprint and influence aggressively, forcing decoupling, and of course imposing terrible costs on the country involved. Beijing has no desire to be locked in a Russia type scenario, which would certainly unravel decades of hard work to integrate itself into the global economy and to rise to the position it is now. Instead, Beijing sees wisdom not in trusting the US, but placating it, while nonetheless using diplomacy to continue to implement its own vision, building new friendships, free trade agreements, partnerships and other forms of cooperation which centralize its vision for global economic integration against the tide of US Cold Warmongering.

Beijing more so advocates a subtle and discreet resistance, than an overt and belligerent one, to the vision of the United States. It hopes to take the "sting" out of Washington's aggressive policies, to shift the paradigm, to tone down the hostility that China haters have been able to control the agenda with, and therefore reduce tensions and emphasize ties. When viewed in this light, it is obvious why Xi Jinping personally placed his stamp on Blinken's visit, because it is China's effort to control the flow of relations between the two countries, affirming the reality of necessary ties above Cold War fantasies.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:

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