Opinion | The Endgame of the Ukraine War, and the 'Damming' of the Conflict
By Tom Fowdy
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Nova Kakhovka dam in Southwestern Ukraine was critically damaged in an explosion. The surrounding Kherson region, which is split between Russian and Ukrainian control, has began to flood. Both sides have pointed fingers at each other as the respective culprits, making the reality of what actually happened difficult to decipher. The explosion comes amidst Ukraine's clear commencing of a "counteroffensive" which it claims will liberate the rest of Russian held territory, with them having pursued several attacks to the east of the country.
With the Russia Ukraine war now one year and four months old, the events of the next few months are likely to be decisive in steering it towards its ultimate outcome. While Russia experienced many setbacks in 2022, which included botched initial plans to capture Kiev, and then counteroffensives in Kherson and Kharkov, it nonetheless continues to occupy a considerable portion of the country, with the war largely having descended into a stalemate since December 2022.
Despite this, Ukraine continues to claim it can win decisively. Utilising a tremendously resilient propaganda and psychological campaign, Kiev has been able to mask all of its losses, dramatically exaggerate those inflicted on the enemy, and keep its spirits and morale high no matter what, complimented of course with blanket support from the mainstream western media. Thus, having received a supply of western tanks, it has been comprehensively claimed that if Ukraine can succeed in cutting through Russia's territory in south Ukraine, separating Crimea from the Eastern territory in Donbass, they will strategically hamstring Moscow and dictate the outcome of the war.
It is hard to deny that Ukraine already, as per the factors above, comprehensively dictate the "psychology of the war" and thus every direction it moves in. Hence the western media have been hyping stop about an "expected Ukrainian counteroffensive". Similarly, last year, the media also joined in aggressively amplifying Ukraine's objectives to take back Kherson, only to instead catch Russia off guard and attack Kharkov. Kiev's ability to engage in deception and psychological entrapment has been almost limitless, which has forced Russia to learn some hard lessons despite it being an invasion they committed to.
But their current objectives won't be so easy. That's because Russia not only conducted a mobilisation to bolster its numbers, but also refined its strategies and tactics, which has included expanded industrial capacity and a more ruthless pursuit of missile and drone strikes. With the exception of Kharkov, which was not prioritised and undermanned, Ukrainian strategy against Russia has normally revolved around "squeezing" them out of a given area through relentless attacks on their supply lines, coupled with slow encroachment and pressure from multiple angles. Rather than being comprehensively defeated, this has usually led Russian forces to voluntarily withdraw, as seen in Kherson, Kiev and the north of the country in general.
In this case, Ukraine will almost certainly be seeking to destroy Russian supply lines between Mariupol and Melitopol, and will want to get those cities within range of long-range artillery such as HIMARS, combining the supply squeeze with pushing forwards. But what if, Ukraine fail in these objectives? While of course the popular narrative and understanding brings a lot of belief to Kiev, per their many exaggerations as well as successes, nonetheless Ukraine's ability to comprehensively "win" this war, defined by pushing Russia out of its territory completely, or setting the conditions to do so, has been staked on this offensive being successful particularly due to its geographic implications.
But on the contrary, that also means if Ukraine, even with the supply of western tanks amongst other things, fail to do so, where does that leave them? Will the west give them even more, and will they opt for escalation? Or will the initiative return to Russia? Either way, it seems that their current plans are a last dash gamble to achieve their maximalist goals. It is impossible to decipher right now as to whether they will succeed or not, and far too early, because likewise as we know Ukraine's ability to surprise should also not be underestimated. Yet it seems clear that over the next few months, we should be able to discover just what the war's outcome may look like, from a shock Ukrainian victory, to a protracted stalemate, or a renewed Russian pursuit, it's all still to play for.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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