Opinion | Talk is Cheap, and so is Blinken's visit
By Tom Fowdy
Over the weekend US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made an official visit to Beijing, which marked the first trip of its kind since 2019 amidst souring relations between the two countries. The visit was supposed to come earlier this year, but was postponed following the notorious "balloon incident" which provoked widespread hysteria in the US. Not surprisingly, the visit yielded nothing in terms of substantial results or breakthroughs, and revolved around the rhetoric of so-called "lines of communication" or "guardrails". China similarly, said that a more constructive relationship was in the interests of both countries. Expectations clearly were at rock bottom on both sides.
Nothing will change following this visit, and Beijing has more tolerance than perhaps is necessary for even permitting it. The call for dialogue from the Biden administration is in fact nothing consistent with what it has done already. It frequently calls for such meetings while simultaneously pursuing hostile policies against China against a myriad of fronts. If Beijing plays unwilling, or hard to get, the Biden administration may desist tactically for a short-while, but then otherwise resume later when it becomes politically inconvenient to do so. On Washington's behalf, there is no goodwill, and much less sincerity.
The events of the year 2021 best fit this model. When the Biden administration first came to office, it took no hesitation to hastily embrace the Trump administration's foreign policy legacy against China, and then quickly communicate to Beijing that nothing was changing with a series of highly aggressive meetings and exchanges of rhetoric. It was following this, that Beijing gave the administration the "cold shoulder" and played hard to get for several months in seeking a summit between Xi and Biden. In doing this, the US administration held off for several months and shelved a bill to ban all goods produced in Xinjiang on the guilty assumed premise of "forced labor."
However, as soon as the US got what it wanted from China, and the Biden-Xi summit concluded, the administration returned to rapidly ramping up tensions with Beijing across several areas. Pouncing on the Peng Shuai story, while also publishing new Xinjiang material in the bid to manufacture consent for the upcoming (coordinated) Winter Olympic Boycott. As this happened, the delayed sanctions, the bill on all goods manufactured in Xinjiang, were unsurprisingly passed and signed into law. The United States never truly changes course or its goals, only changes its tactics for what is most convenient in the short term. The US wants the exclusive right to continue to antagonize China, yet calls for guardrails and lines of communication in tensions they are provoking.
And soon this cycle will repeat itself. The US is being conciliatory only because it feels it needs something from China, not because it has had an earnest self-reflection or sense of regret. In doing so, it is likely that by the end of 2023, as the US election season officially starts to heat up, that tension will increase again. Every administration plays to the US domestic political cycle, and there is no escaping the reality that China will be weaponized as a key issue and mass hysteria will be pushed again by hawkish Republicans, which will force the White House to exert the appearance of being "tough." When this occurs, those "delayed" sanctions, which currently include new restrictions on US investment in China, will be wheeled out.
It should also not surprise anyone that Taiwan will seek to influence the scope of the US election as well. Expect Taipei to ramp up its soliciting of US politicians to visit, including perhaps even an attempt to visit the candidate itself to do so. Essentially, this is what Nancy Pelosi did during the midterm elections last year, and it is likely this process will be repeated even if the figures involved are not as senior as her. From every direction, efforts will be made to try and ramp up tensions, which will put pressure on the administration to maintain a stable position. This only goes to show that the White House has limited control over its relationship with Beijing, and therefore these meetings do not bring much substance to truly change anything.
Providing nothing unexpected, or that cannot be accounted for, occurs. There will be a few months of calm, if that, and then essentially the cycle will repeat itself, and 2024 will be another tense year. There may be another Biden-Xi summit, but it will be done before election time (presumably at G20) and then that will be as good as it gets because hysteria, paranoia and crusading all return, the latter constituting the true "Business as usual."
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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