Opinion | The US throws China a bone, but don't buy it
By Tom Fowdy
After what has been a disastrous half of the year in terms of US-China relations, the Biden administration has been subtly ramping up its efforts to try and engage Beijing. The media has been awash with reports that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken might pursue a visit to the country, one which was previously called off following the infamous "Spy Balloon" incident.
Similarly, on Monday several additional stories emerged to this nature. One was that the United States would no longer force restrictions on South Korean and Taiwan semiconductor companies against expanding their foundries in China, signaling a reversal of a previous position, despite the fact it might help Beijing in its "technology war" against Washington. Then secondly, Huawei-linked news outlets began reporting that the US might be prepared to let the company import 5G Qualcomm chipsets again, signaling a potential concession on export controls.
The US appears to be throwing China a "bone" of sorts, making several small and rare concessions geared towards diplomatic sweetening in an attempt to engage. The question is why? First of all, it might go without saying that China's attempts to cut off diplomatic communication and "cold shoulder" the US have been effective. Leveraging contact works, and the administration appears to have blinked first fearing that they have finally pushed Beijing too far to the point the relationship has become unmanageable.
Secondly, and perhaps more influentially, the US's abrasive and unilateral approach to decoupling and sanctions has clearly upset allies, along with its draconian protectionist policies. This was first noticeable in the US adopting the Ursula Von Der Leyden improvised word of "Derisking" as a means to play down fears of a total cold war and the impact of its strategy on the global economy. Secondly, it is obvious that the attempt to control the extent allies could expand in the China semiconductor market was unacceptable, and for South Korea this was a policy that provoked great discontent. US policies have repeatedly been perceived as eroding the semiconductor industries of its Asian allies to forcibly re-shore at home.
In conjunction with this, China's retaliatory measures against Micron also caught the US by surprise, and in this case seem to have called their bluff too. Despite the fact that the US is attempting to pursue a high-tech blockade against China, it simultaneously wants to dominate the Chinese market on its own terms and conditions, which may go some way to explaining the Huawei news. Likewise, US calculations that growing embargos can stifle or stop China's own semiconductor development appear to have been made on overtly idealistic miscalculations, and the US is likely realizing that cutting itself, and foreign partners, out of the market will prove to be counterproductive.
However, this should not be taken as a definitive conclusion that relations are improving. The US has shown multiple times that it is willing to engage, and subsequently alleviates tensions, only to arbitrarily change course and rapidly ramp them up later, along with scores of new sanctions and export control measures. The Biden administration is pursuing a "charm offensive" diplomatically, but it is not so to speak, pursuing a "change in strategy", wherein everything remains the same. The US may change its tactics, it may soften or delay its approach, but it will not fundamentally change its goals. As soon as the opportune moment comes, the US will suddenly increase tensions again and support such with all-embracing media coverage towards whatever foreign policy goals it seeks to fulfill.
Even now, there are individuals within the US government who do not want relations to improve. For example, it cannot go unnoticed that along with Blinken's proposed visit to China, the story emerged of a "secret Chinese spy base" in Cuba. The motivation behind this story is the same as the "spy balloon" one, it is individuals seeking to cause controversy and disruption in order to force the government to save face domestically and scupper engagement. This shows the very real political limits of US-China rapprochement, and in most cases the Biden administration has easily capitulated to this domestic political sentiment. This frequently comes with a "giving with one hand, taking with the other" approach to engagement, hence in line with these gestures, the US added two new firms to the entity list accusing them of "forced labor."
So, while the US is pursuing a "cooler" approach for now, this is more so because there is something they want from China in a short-term perspective, while also seeking to reassure allies. In the bigger picture though, not a lot has changed, with the administration not having the political will, space or desire to do so.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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