Opinion | China's restraint is not weakness
By Tom Fowdy
As predicted, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan last night. As the moment eclipsed in real time, social media became insufferable, not least because many people seemed to actually believe China, having promised retaliation, would go as far as literally taking military action in the view to stop the visit from happening. This quickly accumulated into a narrative that China had failed to adequately respond, therefore making it a "paper tiger" or cowardly to the US. The let-down between expectations and reality was in fact so stark, that China's announcement that it would be holding military drills inside Taiwan's territorial waters (including just 12 miles from the South Coast) seemed to go over people's heads.
Anyone with an elementary understanding of international relations and China's foreign policy, however, will have long recognized it was completely inconceivable for Beijing to have taken such a great risk in directly confronting one of the most senior politicians in the United States, which if things had gone wrong, would have constituted a provocation so grave that it would have accumulated in an unavoidable war. To do would have been short-sighted, reckless and completely insane. Choosing to act in restraint, even during such deep tensions, is not a sign of weakness or cowardice, and nor is it smart to assume that China's "reaction" to this event has to be definitely impulsive and in the heat of the moment itself.
It needs to be spelled out that whilst China is set on pushing for reunification, it does not desire a direct war with the US and its allies. China's foreign policy post Mao Zedong has been premised on prioritizing stability above all in the view to attaining China's economic development, which comes with a secondary principle of avoiding conflict with the US and its allies wherever possible. In this capacity, China sees its own success in economically integrating itself more with the outside world, attaining its national strength, and avoiding falling into pitfalls and traps which will bring severe detrimental consequences upon it. In doing so, it sees its role in gradually diluting US power as indirect and creating space for its own interests, than doing so forcefully.
Of course, it is true to say that owing to the US branding China as its largest rival, and pursuing decoupling (and pushing allies to follow) this is becoming harder and harder to pursue as a successful strategy. The US wants to contain China's technological development, it wants to diversify supply chains away from China, it wants to undermine Chinese investments, meaning of course that the paradigm (most effective in the 1990s and 2000s) of "avoiding confrontation" is wearing thin. Many supporters of China on social media also feel this. They question why China is not retaliating to growing provocations and sanctions by the US? It is frequently mocked that China vows to take "countermeasures" but never truly does so.
The answer is that China remains cautious and patient in its decision making, and sees things in a long-term strategic perspective, as opposed to short-term gratification. Beijing perceives that with China's own capabilities and military footprint growing, time is ultimately on its side to get what it wants in the long run. The US is racing to contain China now in a view to what the future will bring. The balance of power is, despite reactionary policies from the west, deemed to be gradually shifting and on the metric of Taiwan, it certainly sees it this way. Whilst China presents the use of force as a bottom line, it is quickly forgotten amidst the tidal wave of mainstream media hysteria that it is a last resort, than a first resort.
So why in this case, would you throw everything away on a quick fix, short-term solution merely in the rage of a US speaker visiting? That isn't strategy, that is impulse. China will of course gradually harden its position and respond to try and reinforce its red line, but it sees no merits in creating a sheer catastrophe which can bring even greater western unity, sanctions and opposition to it. China's doctrine is that it thrives through embracing globalization, and frequently speaks out against "Cold War blocs" pushed by the US, but if one sees the reaction to Russia in Ukraine, what easier way is there to do that than start another major war? China sees itself in a marathon, not a sprint, and therefore slow and steady wins the race.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | Pelosi's visit is just the start of a bigger crisis
Comment