Opinion | Nancy Pelosi's game with fire over Taiwan

By Tom Fowdy

US-China tensions are potentially about to raise to unpredictable levels, not least because of persistent rumors as circulated by the Financial Times, that US House of Representatives leader, Nancy Pelosi, intends to visit the island of Taiwan. China has warned repeatedly through official channels that it will take "forceful countermeasures" should the proposed visit go ahead, which was already postponed once from April after she apparently tested positive for COVID-19.

Pelosi herself has confirmed nothing directly, but news of the visit appears to have provoked concern from the Biden administration, as well as warnings from the US military. If it goes ahead, Pelosi would constitute the most senior US official to visit the island in 25 years, and the first by the ruling party of the Presidency. The last speaker to visit was Republican Newt Gingrich, but because he was an opposition politician at that time, the administration bared no political liability for it.

However, Nancy's proposed visit, scheduled for next week, comes at a time amidst the United States already is seeking to gradually undermine and revise its commitment to the "One China Policy" under a strategy Beijing calls "salami slicing", which involves gradually moving the goalposts whilst claiming in rhetoric to support the longstanding policy. Taiwan itself, under the Democratic People's Party (DPP) actively encourages this, and for several years has pursued a campaign of frontloading the visits of western politicians to the island in order to advocate a pro-independence, anti-China agenda.

What further complicates the situation is also the reality that the United States has clearly used the Ukraine war to try and drive opportunistic narratives against China on Taiwan issue, which has only encouraged them to push against Beijing's red-line harder. The media have constantly sought to frame Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a failure which has imposed costs Moscow did not anticipate in the face of both unity and sanctions, which according to them should make Beijing "think twice" about provoking a conflict, assuming China has "far too much to lose" in such a scenario.

Likewise, Biden has also produced several statements that the US itself would "defend" Taiwan in such a contingency. Although these comments were later walked back, it is obvious at a very minimum the US and its allies would seek to arm and equip Taiwan in a similar manner they are downing with Ukraine. It is no surprise based on all this, that despite China's longstanding position, there are clearly some in the US and the west at large who are overconfident concerning Taiwan, and are happy to continually provoke China on the matter into responding, and then presenting it as the aggressor.

This brings us to Nancy's proposed visit. Pelosi is not an extremist or a fantasist, as are some of the voices on China matters, but an opportunistic middle-of-the-way politician who is skilled in deliberately leveraging her position to provoke drama and crisis to her own gain, having initiated plenty of deliberative showdowns with Donald Trump. Congress as a whole has been more hawkish and outspoken on China than the Presidential administrations, and with the mid-term elections in view posed to cause problems for the Democratic Party due to unfavorable economic indicators, Pelosi may eye an opportunity to rekindle support for the status quo.

It has also been theorized by some that she might be initiating this drama as a distraction from scrutiny of her own conflict of interest pertaining to her husband making highly coincidental stock investments in relation to chip firms just before scheduled votes on subsidies. In which case, it remains unclear, especially given the US military's advice, as to whether she will actually go ahead with this. China, however, is well aware that if her visit is allowed to go unopposed, it undermines their legitimacy on Taiwan just that little bit further as it shows their red line isn't serious.

This creates a number of risks for both sides, which whilst unlikely to break out into outright conflict, may result in pre-emptive military actions which could dramatically escalate tensions. This may include large-scale drills, talk of an imposed no-fly zone over Taiwan, and so on, a situation which is extremely dangerous and makes risk of miscalculation. Quite clearly however, it is obvious that this is the game US politicians are willing to play and it represents the climax of a long series of provocations that have sought to deliberately undermine and re-engage America's commitment to the One China Policy. What will exactly happen? We will only find out next week.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:

Opinion | The Conservative leadership race is an ugly race to the bottom on China

Opinion | Janet Yellen's Asia tour illustrates the absurdity of US foreign policy