Opinion | Pelosi's visit is just the start of a bigger crisis

By Tom Fowdy

Despite initially forgoing a mention of the island on her official itinerary, it has been widely reported from insider sources in the US government, as well as in Taipei itself, that Nancy Pelosi is expected to arrive in Taiwan tonight around 10 p.m. local time. She is expected to "spend the night" on the island and meet Tsai ing wen the next day, before heading onwards to South Korea and Japan. Should things go to plan, the visit is set to provoke a massive Taiwan Strait crisis with China having made it explicitly clear that it will retaliate forcefully, likely via a means of large-scale military exercises.

Although President Biden initially expressed public doubt over the visit, a US Spokesperson effectively greenlighted the administration's approval last night saying that Pelosi has a "right to visit Taiwan". Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also urged Beijing "not to escalate"- a comment which is of course unbelievable given the US has effectively created this situation itself, which China has condemned as seriously damaging the bilateral relationship between the two countries and its foundation, built of course on the Three Communiques and the One China Policy.

Such an outcome is typical of the playbook espoused by the United States. To snare and press against the red-lines of other countries, baiting them into a reaction, and then in turn to brand them as an aggressor and threat to the system as a whole, mobilizing others against them. China of course isn't dumb and talk of an outright war over this visit is vastly overblown given what is at stake, at least in the short term. Beijing will react sternly, but nonetheless carefully. However, once the theatrics are over, the long-term consequences of this visit are undeniable in how it will undermine bilateral trust by leading China to perceive the US is hell-bent on undermining the "One China Policy" and open the doorway for more crises and provocations in the future.

It is a longstanding irony that the United States continually strong-arms other countries to mention "stability in the Taiwan Strait" as part of its joint statements, branding of course China as the perpetrator who is "undermining stability" through its actions. This is of course misleading. The chief culprit of growing tensions in the Bilateral strait is none other than Washington itself, in collusion with the ruling "Democratic People's Party" of Taiwan (DPP), who has sought to provocatively revise its commitment to the "One China Policy" and progressively change the status quo against China's favor, whilst claiming by word of mouth to still support it. This is a process which Beijing continually describes as "Salami Slicing".

The Pelosi visit is a good example of this. Whilst in her official trip itinerary she omitted mention of Taiwan, she is nonetheless intent on doing so "unofficially" as if merely making it underhand somehow downplays the political significance of it. However, China certainly does not see it this way and it only stands as a testament to the hollowing out of the One China Policy as a whole, which is encouraged by the DPP. Tsai ing wen's government has long facilitated a strategy of doing this by frontloading as many western politicians to visit the island as possible, using backchannels and foreign lobbies to do so. They calculate that by doing so, they can gradually undermine the status quo and provoke China, but nonetheless assume Beijing will not take serious actions to stop it.

However, how long can this continue? China could not be clearer right now that reunification with Taiwan is a political priority. The west assumes that economic needs will deter China from taking serious action. Perhaps in the short term, maybe, but the long-term ramifications of this are huge. If Pelosi is allowed to get away with this trip, it is only emboldening a further undermining of the One China Policy and the DPP at large, who will continue to do this kind of thing. Washington of course will not back down or change their position to accommodate China, because this is what the US does, be it in Ukraine, Iran, North Korea, or any other issue.

US foreign policy is based on the doctrine of maximizing its own strategic advantages to the point it refuses to compromise, which in a multipolar world, is now a pathway to provoking both war and nuclear proliferation. Thus, Pelosi may be in Taiwan for a day, but the consequences of this trip will be both permanent and extremely damaging. Any potential military exercises will be tough and send a clear message, but in this environment will not ultimately cease the pathway the US and the DPP are putting tensions on, in the unlikely event they do come to their senses.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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