By Angelo Giuliano
A Ruling That Changed Nothing
In July 2016, an arbitral tribunal in The Hague ruled on the Philippines' South China Sea case. Manila hailed it as a historic victory. Ten years later, the reefs, the ships and the dispute remain where they were. What has changed is the level of risk.
China never consented to the proceedings. It declined to participate and declared the award null and void. In 2006 it had already used Article 298 of UNCLOS to exclude maritime boundary disputes from compulsory arbitration. The heart of the dispute is sovereignty over reefs and islands, which UNCLOS does not decide. And in the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties, China and ASEAN committed to settle disputes through direct talks.
A ruling the other side never accepted was never going to enforce itself. The real question is what Manila has chosen to do with it, and at what cost.
From Legal Victory to Physical Confrontation
With the legal route exhausted, the dispute has moved to the water. Philippine Coast Guard vessels regularly push toward Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. Chinese coast guard ships respond. The encounters grow closer and more dangerous each year, with vessels manoeuvring within metres of one another.
These incidents are filmed and broadcast almost instantly. Much of the footage is distributed through SeaLight, a project led by Ray Powell, a retired US Air Force colonel, whose role the Manila Standard reported in February 2024. Groups such as Atin Ito add "civilian" missions with flags, buoys and invited media.
Publicity may win headlines. But every staged confrontation also raises the chance that a collision, an injury, or a death turns a media event into a military crisis. And in a crisis, Manila does not control what happens next.
The Treaty Trap
At Second Thomas Shoal sits the BRP Sierra Madre, a navy ship the Philippines grounded deliberately in 1999. Every resupply run is now a potential flashpoint.
The Pentagon has confirmed US personnel are deployed in support roles under Task Force Ayungin. Washington has also said the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty covers Philippine public vessels and coast guard ships anywhere in the South China Sea.
That sounds like protection. In practice, it is a tripwire. The treaty's articles leave Washington room to decide how, and whether, to respond. A small incident at a rusting hull could escalate into a confrontation between nuclear powers, fought in Philippine waters, with the Philippines on the front line. Whatever its outcome, the country that bears the damage would not be the United States.
A Platform in Someone Else's Strategy
Japan is now offering its own help. At the Japan Self-Defense Forces anniversary event, Mitsubishi Electric and Toshiba presented the Type 03, Type 11 and Type 91 air defence systems to Philippine officials, along with satellite monitoring of Scarborough Shoal.
On a map, the logic is clear. Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines form the first island chain. For outside powers, the Philippines is a forward position in a wider contest with China. Bases, missiles and surveillance placed on its territory make it a target, not a beneficiary.
The Economic Arithmetic
The economic picture is just as unfavourable. China remains the Philippines' largest trading partner. Manila has never sanctioned China over the ruling, and for good reason: it cannot afford to. No other country has done so either.
An escalating confrontation puts that relationship at risk. That means exports, investment, tourism and the livelihoods of fishermen who were supposed to benefit from the ruling in the first place. Allies will issue statements of support. They will not compensate Manila's losses.
Politics Over Strategy
At home, the confrontational line has become a political weapon. President Marcos faces accusations of using impeachment proceedings and court cases against Vice President Sara Duterte ahead of 2028. Under the Duterte administration, direct engagement with Beijing lowered tensions and returned fishermen to their grounds.
Diplomacy is deteriorating too. Representative Terry Ridon has called for Chinese diplomats to be expelled, and Senator Kiko Pangilinan has urged that Ambassador Jing Quan be sent home. The Chinese embassy replied: "Why don't you suggest closing the entire embassy?" Cutting channels of communication is exactly what makes escalation more likely.
The Way Out
There is a safer path, and it has existed all along: direct negotiation. A crisis hotline, agreed rules for coast guard encounters, fishing arrangements, and joint research or development would lower the risk of conflict and bring tangible benefits to Filipinos.
The current course offers the opposite. More cameras, more ships, more foreign forces, and a steadily rising chance that one mistake becomes a war the Philippines would lose most from.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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