By Philip Yeung
When, without warning, Trump first launched airstrikes against Iran, he expected a quick kill, an instant surrender and a regime change. None of that has materialized.
Since then, things are getting weird. First, there was a ceasefire. Then back to bombing. Then another ceasefire. The pattern is repeated endlessly. Have you ever seen a commander-in-chief in such a flip-flop frenzy? When the flip-flopping becomes a predictable pattern, the negotiation process becomes a joke. This is no strategy. This is insanity. The urgent question for the world is: how to put the genie back into the bottle, telling him "You are fired!" and return him as a harmless reality show host?
Iran is a prickly porcupine. It is no Venezuela. By now, friends and foe alike are wise to Trump's ways. He is unprincipled, and totally impulse-driven. He is ignorant and a poor planner. A serial failure in the business world, he had bankrupted all his businesses, including his unlosable casino and the laughable Trump University. Nothing with Trump's name on it has ended well. This war is no different. He is a certified loser.
In his ghostwritten book, the Art of the Deal, he portrayed himself as a consummate dealmaker. But the truth is, he is a one-trick pony. The only thing that matters to Trump's transactional dealings is leverage. For Trump, no leverage, no respect. That's why Trump has grudging admiration for China and Russia, as both are astute players at the tit-for-tat leverage game that he loves.
We can now predict that so long as Trump lives in the White House, he will continue to wield punitive tariffs like a big stick, though tariffs have been tossed out as illegal by the US Supreme Court. Trump doesn't know how to play geopolitics any other way. It is his way or the highway. This flawed man needs war, preferably with the odds stacked against his opponent. He loves the big stick--either tariffs or bombs and bullets. His sickness feeds on others' weaknesses. Though half-senile, he happens to be hyperkinetic. That makes him doubly dangerous---a bully who is a prisoner of his own moods, with his fingers on the nuclear button.
Trump plays his unpredictability like a trump card. But conducting a war takes meticulous planning and strategic thinking. Trump, however, is constitutionally incapable of either. Mood swings, threats and tantrums don't win wars.
This war has exposed Trump's lack of logic as a negotiator. When you bargain in bad faith, your word becomes worthless. The Iranians now know that being reasonable cuts no ice with Trump. He wants raw power that grabs him all the attention he craves. He knows this war is unwinnable. While the US mainland is beyond the reach of Iranian missiles, American military bases in the region are in harm's way. As US casualties mount, its munitions dwindle and the dollar sinks, Trump needs a quick exit. The trick is how not to look like a loser.
Betting agencies in Vegas count on Trump ending the war as the mid-terms loom. While constantly reshuffling the deck, he has failed to factor in Iran's proxies in the region, its military capabilities, or its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's Iran war started five months ago, almost to the day. This unpopular and senseless war will cost him and America dearly. The US has burnt through hundreds of billions of dollars, with more US soldiers coming home in coffins, and Trump's popularity plummeting. No one has benefited from the war except Netanyahu.
Out of the blue, Ukraine has declared Iran a hostile actor, angered by its deal with Moscow to send its drones to the Ukraine warfront. This is a strategic error, as this makes it a legitimate target for Iranian missiles. As the war drags on, global oil prices skyrocket, gifting Moscow a huge economic bonus. Besides, as a favor-seeker, Ukraine doesn't get to rub shoulders with Trump. Jumping on his bandwagon won't buy it any additional US weapons. A bleeding Ukraine can't afford a two-front conflict.
Trump is digging his own grave by prolonging this unpopular war. Trump's gangster-like threat of resorting to war crimes by smashing its power plants, bridges and other civilian infrastructure is no exit strategy. The world needs a bail-out by American voters who can deliver Trump a resounding defeat in the mid-term elections. The war might have exposed Trump as a useless leader, in war or in peace. But this doesn't stop this loony eighty-year-old bully from daydreaming of a third term in 2028. God might just grant him his wish, in heaven.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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