The Hong Kong Observatory said on Tuesday (July 21) that a low-pressure area east of the Philippines is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next one to two days before entering the northern South China Sea later this week and moving generally towards the Guangdong coast over the weekend.
While uncertainties remain over the system's intensity and landfall location, the Observatory said strong winds are expected over the surrounding waters, accompanied by squally showers, thunderstorms and swells.
Under the tropical cyclone naming list that took effect in 2025, the developing system will be named Noul if it intensifies into a tropical storm.
Forecast models are currently showing significant differences in the projected track of the system. According to the Observatory's forecast model, the storm could move directly towards HK and make its closest approach to the city on Sunday (July 26), posing a potential threat.
In contrast, AI forecasting models including Fengwu, Pangu and Fuxi project a more northerly track, suggesting the system could make landfall between Xiamen and Fuzhou on Saturday (July 25). Despite the differing forecasts, most models have shifted the projected track slightly further north compared with their forecasts issued a day earlier.
Some forecast models suggest the storm could make landfall to the east of HK. Although an eastern landfall generally results in weaker wind impacts on the city, Leung Wing-mo, spokesperson for the Hong Kong Meteorological Society, urged the public in a radio programme on Tuesday morning not to let their guard down.
He said the storm's outer rain bands would still affect HK and, regardless of its eventual intensity, the system is expected to bring increased rainfall to the city.
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