As the tsunami of computational power demanded by artificial intelligence (AI) sweeps across the globe, Europe is simultaneously being battered by an energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East. Geopolitics and economic security have become focal points of concern for think tanks and industry players alike. Amid the squeeze from both the United States and China, fears that the EU is being thoroughly marginalized in the AI race are also growing louder.
At first glance, this energy debate sparked by AI computing power appears to center on policy and infrastructure. Yet in the eyes of think-tank scholars and tech industry insiders, the issue is fundamentally about geopolitical maneuvering and is closely tied to the EU's economic security.
Marc De Vos, co-CEO of the Belgian think tank Itinera Institute, said in an interview that, in theory, the EU's Green Deal implies continued investment in infrastructure and power grids, with those resources later being channeled into AI. In reality, however, Europe is clearly lagging in innovation and fighting an uphill battle.
He noted that the EU is currently more inclined toward retaining existing industries than building entirely new ones, which is largely due to the severe pressure of the energy crisis, high costs, and dependence on Russian energy, compounded by the sharp cost spikes following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and now the turmoil in the Middle East.
In De Vos' view, these factors have led the EU to pour a great deal of political energy and public funds into protecting and rescuing its existing industries. As a result, the EU cannot really be considered a major player in the AI field at this point.
He said that while it is currently impossible to predict the upper limit of future electricity demand for AI development, what is certain is that the EU does not have enough space or grid capacity to invest in large-scale data centers the way the United States, China, or Middle Eastern countries do.
At a time when geopolitical tensions are intensifying, De Vos pointed to another challenge facing the EU in developing AI: political fragmentation.
He said that no single European country can claim on its own that it will become a major AI player—this must be achieved through the EU in practice. Yet the fundamental problem lies in the lack of EU-level resources and the drive to push forward major projects.
De Vos stressed that the era of "doing nothing and leaving it to the market" is over. Today, strategic and geopolitical considerations carry much more weight, so decisions must be made. If decisions cannot be made at the EU level, the result will only be a patchwork of unilateral actions by individual governments. "Europe's challenge is not China, the United States, or Russia—it is Europe itself."
This economic security threat, ignited by the energy crisis, along with anxieties over falling behind in development and insufficient power generation crowding out electricity for existing industries, is keenly felt by those on the front lines of the industry.
Bart Steukers, CEO of Agoria, the Belgian technology industry federation, said that since 2022, applications for data center grid connections in Belgium have surged ninefold. If projected electricity capacity reservations for 2034 are taken into account, current operational capacity is already double what the national grid development plan had anticipated.
He also acknowledged that for technology companies in Belgium, energy is a decisive factor in competitiveness. Europe, including Belgium, is witnessing signs of industrial decline, partly due to the disadvantages it faces in energy.
Yet this situation also means that if a more reliable and stable energy structure can be successfully built—one based on nuclear and renewable energy, combined with more robust grid modernization—it could create a more stable operating environment.
Steukers said frankly that the energy consumption of AI data centers is currently one of the major social issues, and the industry is therefore keeping an eye on emerging technologies, particularly in areas such as chip technology, and especially photonics. These technologies hold promise for significantly reducing energy consumption and could potentially transform the entire landscape.
A crisis can also be an opportunity. In the face of geopolitical and economic security pressures, Steukers also sees resilience in Belgian companies and potential in the renewable energy sector.
According to him, many Belgian firms have already successfully integrated into the offshore wind supply chain, and many others are performing strongly in smart grid and energy storage technologies. However, the prerequisite is that the government must provide a stable and predictable operational framework and establish long-term stability, so that these Belgian companies can truly leverage their strengths.
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