By Philip Yeung
Who won the four-month Iran War? The universal consensus: It's not America.
Still, flickers of uncertainty remain in ending the war, all because Israel is the wild card. Continuing to attack Lebanon is Netanyahu's way of scuttling the peace deal, as neither Israel nor Lebanon is a signatory to the MOU. He needs bombs dropping and bullets flying to keep himself out of jail. His political survival depends on it.
Iran's response is swift: the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Israel stops the killing in Lebanon. In his latest tweet, Trump has again threatened to obliterate Iran and even kidnap its negotiating team—this is the language of the lawless. Iran is negotiating with a thug.
Trump was goaded into the war by Netanyahu. No doubt he was misled into thinking that regime change would be a piece of cake, after the clean, surgical operation in abducting Venezuela's Maduro. But Trump has not factored in the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz--the economic equivalent of a nuclear bomb. Nor has he considered Iran's trump card, China. Iran did not exactly bring an umbrella to a typhoon. Its million-strong, teeth-baring army was waiting for Yankee soldiers to land.
Iran qualifies as a quagmire. With civilian deaths at over 7000 and a sticker price north of 130 billion of tax dollars, Trump has come to the inescapable conclusion that the war is unwinnable.
Iran can credibly claim that as a middle power, it has fought superpower America to a draw. And draws, in wars and soccer matches, are anathema to the almighty Americans.
What about the toll on the US? First, the diplomatic fallout. This is the first war started by America that its allies have refused to be sucked into. Every EU member has elected to sit it out. Trump feels betrayed and has been taking it out on his gun-shy allies. EU leaders have all been insulted in a public falling out with Trump. The latest to hit the headlines is Italy, whose female prime minister has called Trump out for fabricating the story that she had stooped to begging him for a photo op at the G-7 summit. Trump's art of the insult has descended into the gutter where the juvenile-senile dwells.
Trump's anxiety for a quick war-ending is fueled by his worries over the upcoming midterms. At risk is the Republicans' wafer-thin majority in both houses. The specter of impeachment looms.
Before the cameras, Pakistan is the key mediator. But reliable sources confirm that behind the scenes, it is China that has sealed the deal. China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, has convinced its leadership that its national interest is better served by peace than war. Trump himself reaffirms China's pivotal role in brokering the MOU when he openly thanked the Chinese for helping to clinch it.
And so, it is into the China basket that Iran is putting its eggs. Their bilateral oil trade is also weakening the dollar-based SWIFT international financial system.
Iran's fate is now inseparable from China, while the US has ruptured its relations with its traditional European allies. It went into the war as an unstoppable conqueror and emerged with its tail between its legs. And, for the first time, cracks have appeared in the tight-as-thief US-Israeli relationship. For once, the US Vice President has the guts to call the Jewish state ungrateful, with Israel crying foul over being sold out.
China may not have an empire. But it carries an imperial clout in mediating disputes in this volatile area. Except in exercising its regional influence, China doesn't shout. It whispers. And wins.
With Trump friendless and locked in a shouting match with Israel, this may reshuffle the deck in the Middle East. As JD Vance pointedly reminds war-like Israel, "How long can a small nation of 9 million keep killing its neighbors to keep itself safe?"
If this deal holds, Netanyahu's days are numbered. His battle now moves to the courts. Can the "woe-is-me" Israeli leader wriggle free from his corruption case? But at least, in his prison cell, he is safe from Iranian drones and missiles.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Philip Yeung:
Opinion | Trump at 80—a mental milestone that sets alarm bells ringing
Opinion | The World Cup of shame—the beautiful game turned ugly
Comment