By Tom Fowdy
For the past few weeks, I have written at length expressing scepticism at the belief a huge deal between Washington and Tehran to end the President's botched war, seemed absurd. My thesis is not baseless, for the United States is famous for having a foreign policy that does not offer strategic compromise to adversaries under any circumstances. While the US may de-escalate or withdraw from situations (ending wars), it does not give away leverage it holds over an opponent until its strategic objectives are met.
So imagine my surprise that the US has purportedly agreed to an agreement with Iran which not only ends the conflict, but reportedly pledges to lift sanctions at the UN level and then cites a $300 billion figure for its reconstruction! This makes even less sense given throughout the past few weeks during the course of the talks the US state department has repeatedly tightened sanctions on Tehran. Let me just cite an official announcement sent only a week ago on June 11th: "Today, the United States is imposing sanctions on thirteen individuals and entities based in Iran, Belarus, and China, including Hong Kong, that have sought to source and purchase weapons, including man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)."
As it continues: "Consistent with the President's National Security Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2), the United States continues to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and take actions to deny the IRGC and the government of Iran access to the resources that sustain their destabilizing activities." So, we're not doing this anymore? As now, just a week later they're pledging to lift all sanctions on Iran and happily rubber-stamp their reconstruction even if they insist they don't pay for it? How does this make any sense whatsoever? I haven't made any incorrect predictions regarding this conflict, the issue seems to be a foreign policymaking schizophrenia in the White House which admittedly, is to be expected of them.
It makes even less sense when you look at the history. In 2018, Donald Trump infamously ripped up Barack Obama's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, dubbed the "Iran deal" or the "Obama deal." In doing so, the President accused his predecessor of giving Iran "billions of dollars" to allow them to terrorise the Middle East with proxy networks, and thus returned to "maximum pressure" seeking a better deal with Tehran. So we seriously ask ourselves have we just gone through all of this so Donald Trump can do exactly the same thing and give them another deal with the same commitments which also gives them money?
You could not write such satire. Trump's conflict in Iran has been an unmitigated disaster wherein a plan to impose a swift, short-term capitulation on the Islamic Republic regime quickly escalated into a regional war imposing global turmoil. Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz appears to been a killer shot which has hammered the global economy and yes, despite his aggressive rhetoric, posturing and threats, forced the President to the table. Iran, who was forced into a position with nothing left to lose, clearly made a long list of demands for their cooperation.
The regime, although having taken heavy damage from US bombing and economic deterioration, was clearly confident contrary to American calculations that Trump could not remove them from power. As I noted before, Iran's geographic realities made this impossible. Likewise, Tehran was able to demonstrate much stronger military capabilities than expected, attacking multiple Gulf states simultaneously, destroying US military bases, oil infrastructure. Trump's administration fundamentally miscalculated at every single level of this conflict and clearly was not able to tolerate a "frozen status quo" in the same sense as he had with North Korea.
However, I still have considerable doubts that the United States will fulfil its promises to Iran, and for good reason. While Trump deserves credit for actually throwing the Israel lobby's wishes under the bus, they will still continue to exist. Iran will continue to be framed as an adversary of the United States, the policy of containment won't desist, there will be no broad diplomatic opening, and even if UN sanctions are lifted, the machinery of US domestic politics will make it untenable to lift unilateral sanctions. Still, it remains true that Trump hit reality here for policies aimed at regime change in Iran which escalated into existential war, hit a brick wall.
America lost, bigly.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | Why the 'Iran deal' is not a peace treaty but a superficial disengagement
Opinion | Why an Iran 'deal' remains nowhere in sight
Opinion | Trump's 'Military Listing' of Chinese firms is a negotiating ploy
Opinion | Trump's new 'forced labour' gambit is another, indirect shot at China
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