By Tom Fowdy
On Monday, the European Commission appeared to reach a deal in its low-intensity trade standoff with China over Electric Vehicles (EV). Having previously placed tariffs on the import of Chinese EVs into the bloc, which Beijing had began producing and exporting on a phenomenal scale, the Commission made a series of preliminary offers on minimum pricing to China and said it would take into consideration its production investments in the bloc. As reported by Reuters, Beijing seems pleased with this outcome, stating: "China's commerce ministry broadly welcomed the guidance, saying the EU's adherence to non-discrimination and objective assessments showed both sides could settle differences through dialogue."
The timing of both sides to reach such an agreement is arguably not a coincidence, and like most decisions in international relations, is strongly reflective on its political context. Cornered by Donald Trump, who has not only unleashed a punitive tariff war on Europe but also laid claim to sovereign European territory backed by the threat of force, Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen (UVDL), ironically a staunchly pro-Atlanticist advocate, has ultimately made the decision to tone down the anti-China pivot she taken from 2022 and balance relations with Beijing. However, she might find herself meeting a China who is more wary than enthusiastic at her perceived political reliability, yet the phrase "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" still holds.
In 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine unleashed a geopolitical shockwave that reasserted transatlanticism as a priority in European Politics. UDVL, while always an advocate of the United States, saw Europe's best interests in leaning on American support for security to contain Russia while also diversifying its energy supply beyond Moscow. Beijing, which did not overtly oppose the invasion, was viewed with suspicion and thus an added challenge to European security interests. The Biden administration was viewed as more cooperative with Europe than Trump 1.0 and thus UDVL willingly tilted the bloc's foreign policy not an overtly hostile, but a more sceptical stance on Beijing, which she described as "de-risking," abandoning attempts to secure greater access to the Chinese market.
Yet the world would change yet again. In 2025, Donald Trump would ultimately return to the White House with a Foreign Policy which was far more unconventional and radical than his first. This time round, America First was not just a talking point, but an absolute philosophy of government. Within that first year, Trump has imposed tariffs on the entire world which are in effect, irreversible, with mitigations only possible if the other party makes massive one-sided concessions; He has withdrawn from scores of international treaties and obligations, he has been willing to offer concessions to Russia in Ukraine that Europe finds unacceptable and worst of all, he has made threats of military action against European territory itself vowing to annex Greenland.
It goes without saying that contemporary American foreign policy towards Europe is unprecedented in modern history, and therefore this has been a shock to the system of the European Commission who had just before it staked everything on closeness to America. Even amidst Trump's chaos, UDVL and Europe's language towards the US remains immensely restrained, but there is no doubt it is said behind closed doors that America now represents a colossal threat to European interests, across the board.
Because of Trump's policies, many countries that were comprehensively hostile to China have since rowed back to engagement. This is most visible in Canada and India. Thus, it is inevitable that Europe has to some extent also made the strategic decision to alleviate tensions with China and make a deal.
On an issue-by-issue basis, the mass import of Chinese EV's into Europe was seen as a threat to European industries, thus the commission responded with tariffs. However, China has also learnt how to impose countermeasures more effectively and use its economic clout to bring other countries to the table, as it did even with America itself. Hence, while negotiations were ongoing, Beijing announced tariffs on European dairy exports three weeks ago, recognising that Europe is an obvious position of weakness, and thus have sealed an agreement on tariff removal in exchange for setting minimum prices and having investments politically accepted.
Ultimately, the European Union has always tried to consider itself a "pole" in a multipolar world and a foreign policy actor, yet has always failed to do so, largely through a mix of disunity between its member states. The saying goes, "you should not put all your eggs in one basket," and with Biden's America they certainly done so, only for Trump to return and then stamp on its contents. China may not be an ideological and civilizational ally to Europe, in their view, but whether they like it or not Beijing will continue to be a partner of necessity. China has, ironically, become the last bastion of the free market world Trump is ripping up.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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