By Tom Fowdy
Over the past few days, social media has been awash with bad "hot takes" over the situation in Venezuela. Following the capture of President Nicholas Maduro by US forces, critics of China quickly crawled out of the woodwork to proclaim how the situation constituted a humiliation for Beijing. There were many reasons given, including the claim that Beijing should have militarily intervened to protect him, how China lost a "top ally," and so on.
Most striking, however, was a talking point generated by Taiwan region claiming that Venezuela had been dependent upon "Mainland's Radars" and "Mainland's Air Defences," and so it goes, this equipment failed to detect incoming US forces and failed to shoot them down, therefore, it shows that Chinese equipment is "faulty" and thus "China is weak." To put this very mildly, this is a load of hogwash and one of the most nonsensical, bad-faith arguments I've ever seen, one which intentionally ignores what actually happened on that operation and how the United States executed its plan.
First, Venezuela did not offer any resistance whatsoever to the US incursion. This has nothing to do with China, but is a product of a) the condition of the Maduro regime and b) American infiltration efforts; the two points being closely connected. We should understand that Venezuela is a borderline failed state and a political basket case where the ruling regime holds little legitimacy. It had built a rentier model economy entirely premised on Oil Exports with little diversification, was dependent on goods imports, and in 2014, it all came crashing down amidst dramatic falls in global oil prices. This led to a collapse of the national budget, social services, food shortages, and hyperinflation. US sanctions made it worse.
Owing to these circumstances, the Venezuelan military is underpaid, morale is very low, and corruption is rampant. The CIA subsequently exploited this in the buildup to the operation. America did not just "sweep" in at random; they prepared for it for months. When the United States pursues regime change, it always performs preliminary work by infiltrating the target country with CIA agents. These agents work to bribe key figures and officials, offering them cash and immunity in exchange for not resisting the upcoming attack. This method was used in both Afghanistan in 2001 and then Iraq in 2003. In both scenarios, the US managed to create a degree of non-resistance amongst senior commanders, facilitating a swift military collapse in both cases. Russia also attempted this method in the buildup to the invasion of Ukraine, but it failed because Putin grotesquely miscalculated the resilience of the Ukrainian state in a self-affirming feedback loop they wanted to liberate.
After capturing Maduro, the Trump administration quickly revealed that they had indeed sent a CIA team into Venezuela, so we can assume with a high degree of accuracy that they cultivated non-resistance, exploiting the climate of corruption in Caracas. Although the US obviously stopped short of terminating the entire regime and its elite classes, which still hold power, such individuals ultimately reasoned that they had nothing to lose by throwing Maduro under the bus. Therefore, there was no logical or self-interest-based scenario that the country's armed forces would attempt a futile resistance against a neighbouring superpower. Such individuals have nothing to gain from it and everything to lose. If you ignore it, Venezuela can get another leader, perhaps your life can get better, but if you have to fight the US army, the chances are it will end in death.
In this case, we can argue quite clearly that Chinese radars or air defence systems didn't "fail"; they were simply never used in the first place. The US wasn't "not detected"; it was ignored, and armed forces were explicitly ordered not to resist. Thus, it is quite clear that this is a very silly propaganda talking point pushed by the Taiwan region, which wants to muddy what happened here with mudslinging, which is a routine behaviour from Taipei.
Anyone who wants to make this about China assumes Venezuelan forces absolutely intended to resist, and ignores the reality that they did not do so on any level. It seems Maduro's Cuban personal guard might have, but the difference here is that they are actually ideologically loyal to the cause. However, the average Venezuelan soldier, unpaid, just wants to make a living for himself and isn't going to become a voluntary martyr for a President who didn't make his life better when his own superiors have explicitly ordered him to do nothing. So those who want to make this about Chinese systems are not being honest or logical. Something can't "fail" when it is intentionally not used.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | The Trump Doctrine, Maduro, Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere
Opinion | One rule for themselves, another for Jimmy Lai
Opinion | The problematic politicisation of the Tai Po fire tragedy
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