When the winds of international politics shift, those who feel the tremors first are often not the negotiators at the table but the ordinary merchants — calculating costs late into the night, replying to emails, and worrying whether orders will shrink.
Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made a public statement during a parliamentary session, declaring that a so-called "Taiwan contingency" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation," implying Japan might invoke its right to collective self-defense and militarily intervene in the Taiwan question. Worse still, despite multiple solemn protests from China, Takaichi refused to retract her remarks, showing no signs of remorse. Such actions are extraordinarily ill-intentioned, egregious in nature, and could lead to severe consequences. Once again, relations between China and Japan are growing tense.
As the news spreads across society, industries reliant on economic exchanges with China are abuzz with concern. Will this situation replay past episodes of diplomatic friction? Will it affect trade, tourism, real estate, and work visas? Local merchants in Japan who depend heavily on Chinese and South Korean clients are living in a state of unease. Their worries stem from everyday concerns: empty hotel rooms, dwindling client files, and cargo sitting idle at ports waiting to be shipped.
In an office building near Ikebukuro Station, a popular hub for foreigners, Keiko Nakamura is busy organizing tax documents for foreign clients. She is a partner at a tax accounting firm that provides accounting, tax, and company setup services primarily for international students, investors, cross-border workers, and small to medium-sized enterprises. "Over 40% of the cases on my desk are related to Chinese clients," Keiko says as she flips through the files. "This also includes many South Korean clients. Economic exchanges within East Asia have always been highly active."
"Not sure if it's still worth investing in Japan"
However, signs of changing sentiment are becoming increasingly apparent. Three Chinese shareholders who had planned to set up a small imported food company in Tokyo have suddenly slowed their decision-making process. A South Korean fashion brand, which had been preparing to expand its presence in Japan, has also shifted to a wait-and-see approach. Some clients have even asked Keiko about the tax implications of relocating their plans to Singapore or Thailand instead.
"It's not that they don't want to collaborate; they just don't know if Japan is still a safe bet for investment," Keiko explains. "The biggest fear isn't rising costs but whether policies and public sentiment will become exclusionary." She refrains from commenting on political matters, only emphasizing, "Takaichi's actions are damaging economic ties." If the instability persists, she worries about potential long-term effects such as talent loss, the shrinking of the international entrepreneurial community, and a decline in the study-abroad market.
Cargo stuck at ports, worries stuck in the heart
Mr. Matsubara, the owner of a trading company specializing in exporting daily goods and food products to China, has been collaborating with businesses in Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, and other cities for the last five years. Japanese rice, seasonings, and health foods have enjoyed stable sales on Chinese e-commerce platforms. But recently, negotiations for new orders have become tentative.
Chinese tourists currently account for one-quarter of all foreign visitors to Japan, making them a significant source of revenue for Matsubara's company. To attract these customers, the company even opened social media accounts on platforms like Xiaohongshu. Through their operations, Matsubara has also felt the friendliness of Chinese clients.
"However, the person in charge told me their company needs to first assess future policy risks before they can sign any agreements," he says. "No one knows what lies ahead." For the trading industry, the greatest threats aren't just tariffs or quarantine measures but a loss of trust. Even without official restrictions, heightened emotions could lead to symbolic boycotts, plunging logistics, marketing, and storage into a deep freeze. "If that happens, will our goods even make it across the ocean?"
"Chinese clients canceled property viewings as soon as the news broke"
Forty-two-year-old Mr. Li runs a real estate company in Tokyo, assisting foreigners with buying and selling homes, managing vacation rentals, and providing relocation consultation services. Over the past decade, his primary clientele has been Chinese and South Korean customers. "As soon as the news broke, before I even had a chance to read it thoroughly, a Chinese client called to say they were canceling a property viewing," he recalls with a bitter laugh. "The house is still here, but it feels like the contract evaporated overnight."
Within just three days, his orders plummeted by half, and he received over a dozen refund requests. His vacation rental business, which used to see more than 70% of its guests coming from the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong, is now facing a sharp decline in inquiries on booking platforms. Those visitors came for various reasons — to see cherry blossoms, to find Japanese language schools for their children, or to enjoy Japan's relative safety and pristine landscapes. But as political tensions rise, the volume of inquiries has dropped significantly. While Li cannot definitively attribute everything to the diplomatic dispute, it's undeniable that when social media starts circulating messages like "avoid investing in Japan" or "wait and see," the entire industry feels like someone has hit the pause button.
One remark from the top, countless burdens for those below
"I'm not here to defend the Japanese government, nor am I speaking on behalf of any country," Li says with a touch of helplessness. "For businesspeople, the greatest fear isn't competition but uncertainty. As long as Sino-Japanese relations remain unstable, even without formal sanctions, people will hesitate to act." He glances at a long-vacant vacation rental that was supposed to be leased to a family from Guangzhou and quietly adds, "One political statement from above, and down here, we sigh ten times."
(Source: Wen Wei Po; Special Correspondent: Jiuri; English Editor: Zoey SUN)
Related News:
Chinese students criticize Japanese PM: 'Mind your own business, deal with bears first'
Comment