The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded, with its communique emphasizing the need to leverage the synergistic effects of the regional coordinated development strategy, major regional strategies, the functional zoning strategy, and the new urbanization strategy in optimizing the regional economic layout.
Professor Mao Yanhua, Director of the Institute of Regional Opening and Cooperation at Sun Yat-sen University, told Hong Kong Wen Wei Po that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), as a major national regional strategy, is precisely the overlay zone for these four strategies. He projected that the GBA is poised for a new phase of accelerated development in the next five years, continuing to serve as a vital engine for the nation's high-quality development.
Charting the Course for "15th Five-Year Plan" Period
Professor Mao pointed out that the era of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be more complex and volatile than the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is why the communique repeatedly stressed the need to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern. The GBA undertakes multiple roles in the national and regional landscape, including serving as a driving force, innovation leader, and an open gateway.
During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the GBA must not only support nationwide coordinated regional development but also, at a higher level, become a leader in Chinese modernization and a key pillar in building the new development pattern.
"The focus of the GBA's development in the '15th Five-Year Plan' period remains on 'boosting the economy', continuing its role as a national growth pole and source of innovation," Mao stated. He noted that the communique's direction to "build a regional economic layout and territorial space system with complementary advantages and high-quality development" highly aligns with the GBA's city cluster cooperation. "'Complementary advantages' means optimizing resource allocation and clarifying functional divisions among cities to achieve coordinated development at a higher level."
Mao cited the Hong Kong Northern Metropolis and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone in Hetao as prime examples of synergistic planning and complementary advantages within the GBA. Further alignment in spatial planning, industrial functions, and scientific research systems between these areas will help optimize the allocation of technological resources and productivity layout, accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces.
Enhancing Sci-Tech Innovation and Industrial Layout
The communique also called for "accelerating high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology to lead the development of new quality productive forces." Mao acknowledged the significant achievements in upgrading traditional industries in the GBA, particularly in Guangdong, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, but noted that insufficient capacity for original innovation remains a weakness.
To build an international innovation and technology hub and lead in developing new quality productive forces, Mao emphasized that Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao must deepen complementary cooperation in basic research, key technology, commercialization of achievements, and talent flow, while also promoting the deep integration of cross-border infrastructure, industrial chains, and innovation chains.
Regarding industrial layout, the communique's call to "maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing" is also instructive for Hong Kong, Mao said. "Maintaining a reasonable proportion does not mean returning to the era of traditional manufacturing with large factories, but learning from the lessons of industrial hollowing-out in developed economies by developing high-end manufacturing."
He affirmed that the direction of developing "new industrialization" proposed in Hong Kong's 2025 Policy Address is correct. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, Hong Kong should focus on modern manufacturing that does not require vast space or manpower, such as R&D design, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the chip industry. "These industries are high-value-added and not reliant on large amounts of land or labor, fitting well with Hong Kong's needs for new industrialization," Mao said.
He added that modern manufacturing involves long industrial chains and fine divisions of labor. "Hong Kong can leverage its strengths in high-end services like finance, trade, shipping, and legal services to provide systemic support for mainland manufacturing going global, thereby serving the national strategy while enhancing its own growth momentum," Mao stated, referencing the proposed inter-departmental "Going Global Task Force" in Hong Kong's latest Policy Address.
Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, Professor Mao believes it will be a critical five years for the GBA's transition from high-quality development to a world-class bay area. "As long as Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao seize the opportunities in synergy, openness, and innovation, the GBA has every chance to achieve leapfrog development in the new stage and truly become the world's top bay area," he concluded.
Analyst: Shift from "Maintain" to "Promote" Signals New Opportunities for Hong Kong, Macao
In a related analysis, Xie Laifeng, Deputy Director of the Hong Kong, Macao and Regional Development Research Department at China Development Institute, highlighted the significance of the communique's wording change regarding Hong Kong and Macao.
The communique calls to "promote the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macao,". In contrast, the communique from the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee used the word "maintain."
"This change of just two words carries profound implications," Xie told Hong Kong Wen Wei Po. He identified three key reasons behind this shift:
1. Acknowledgment of Challenges: The central government recognizes the impacts and challenges Hong Kong will face from the international situation during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, including deglobalization and trade frictions. As an externally oriented economy, Hong Kong's traditional strengths in finance, shipping, and trade will be tested. In this context of significant changes, merely "maintaining" the status quo is insufficient; a proactive response is needed.
2. Need for Structural Reforms: Both Hong Kong and Macao face deep-seated, structural issues that require new ideas and reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. These include issues like industrial structure and administrative efficiency in Hong Kong, and legal system lag and an over-reliance on a single industry in Macao. Development must be driven through reform.
3. Sustained Central Support: Most importantly, it underscores the central government's consistent high regard for the development of Hong Kong and Macao. Xie believes that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the central government will continue to strongly support Hong Kong and Macao, leveraging strategies like the GBA to introduce more, more proactive and stronger policies to support their development in areas like technology and finance.
Xie advised that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, Hong Kong should proactively plan and accelerate the layout of emerging industries like AI and fintech. It could leverage its international advantages to become a data channel between the mainland and the world, and explore applications like stablecoins based on its financial system that aligns with international rules, avoiding missing development windows and assuming more important functions within the national industrial and sci-tech system.
He emphasized that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical juncture for the GBA's deepening development and for Hong Kong's deep integration into the area. While initial hardware connectivity and policies have shown results, the next five years will focus on advancing the deep alignment of rules, mechanisms, and soft environment development.
"Hong Kong's integration into the country's overall development necessitates deep integration into the GBA construction, striving to promote the deep alignment of rules, standards, and mechanisms," Xie said. He highlighted the need to leverage the comprehensive GBA pilot reform for market-based allocation of production factors to facilitate efficient factor flow and break through barriers caused by systemic differences in soft environment construction.
Xie concluded by noting the numerous development opportunities for Hong Kong during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, where it can accomplish much within the national development landscape. "Hong Kong can no longer afford to miss the window for technological and industrial development. The key for the next five years is to seize the opportunities to achieve more, better, and faster development."
(Source: Wen Wei Po; English Editor: Liu Yu)
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