By Tom Fowdy
On 17th September, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed an unprecedented defense agreement which defined "an attack on one as an attack on both". Although defense agreements involving non-superpower countries are not uncommon regarding some levels of cooperation, for such an agreement to be invoked using NATO like language, thus constituting a "treaty of alliance" is arguably a gamechanger in terms of what it represents geopolitically. The world is changing, and the alliance systems of old no longer satisfy the merits of states.
Little more than a year or so ago, the Biden Administration sought to push the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into an upgraded alliance treaty. The proposed agreement was typical of Biden's aggressive NeoConservative foreign policy that sought to upgrade and lock in alliances all throughout the world. If agreed, the Kingdom, despite the fact it was never "ideologically aligned" in the western sense of alliance obligation, would become a "South Korea tier" US ally with significantly enhanced defense guarantees and military cooperation.
However, it goes without saying that the White House's proposals were tone deaf. First, the administration attempted to make the entire agreement conditional on Saudi recognition of Israel, seeking as Trump 1.0 had done, to try and lock in and reshape the alliance system of the entire Middle East in the bid to containing Iran. Second, Washington wanted the Kingdom to limit its ties with China accordingly in strategic sectors. Above all, it was not just a treaty of alliance but an attempt to contain China, Russia, and Iran in the wider Middle East, which would severely limit the strategic autonomy of Riyadh.
Without even considering all the other factors, the attempt to push Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel in the middle of its war in Gaza was always delusional. Thus, it is no surprise that the Biden Administration never clinched the deal and that the return of a new, much more radical Trump, affirmed its ultimate demise. Since that time, Benjamin Netanyahu has doubled down on Israel's aggression not only in Gaza, but against neighbouring countries. Israel's attack on Doha, Qatar on September 9thhas now made any further Arab recognition of Tel Aviv political suicide, while Washington's clandestine backing of all his actions has only served to further alienate the Arab world.
Washington's irrational and blanket backing of Israel is a geopolitical blind spot that does not seem to account for how such support undermines American soft-power, erodes credibility and legitimacy in the international order, and creates instability. The attack on Doha was a game-changer which has led many Arab states to question the sincerity of US support, and thus the most significant evidence to emerge of that is this Saudi-Pakistan treaty of alliance, which appears to be underpinned by a mutual Islamic bond and an attempt by both countries to gain leverage over their own respective challenges: That being Israel in the Middle East, and India in South Asia for Pakistan.
However, the unspoken element of this agreement, having been signed by two countries who have a history of being close to the US in military terms, is the perception that Washington's support is unreliable. In Saudi Arabia's perspective, Washington is not a credible partner for security because it allows Israel to indiscriminately attack any country it wants, even other gulf states, and there are no consequences for it. Pakistan of course is more vehemently opposed to Israel, and its partnership with the US is one largely set in the War on Terror era, with China becoming its primary backer since that time. Pakistan may be domestically unstable at times, but it is not a militarily weak country. It is a nuclear power with a formidable military that only appears weak in relative terms as its primary adversary is a much larger India.
Thus, as India as become more sectarian and nationalist, Pakistan has sought out needs more direct backing from the Islamic world, and it is happy to exchange that for balancing against Israel and US influence. A balancing act might be the ultimate way to put it and conclude: The world has changed, and the erosion of the international order we once knew has led to a shift towards a multipolar system. It is easy to focus exclusively on the great powers themselves, but the unpredictability of the system at large also means that middle power states will seek to avoid subjugation (as the US tried against Saudi Arabia) by consolidating their own alliance systems in the bid to sustain strategic autonomy.
Thus, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ultimately chose an alliance with Pakistan above a subjugation to American terms, and recognition of Israel in exchange for becoming a "South Korea" tier ally. The United States has long premised its foreign policy on dominating and consolidating the entire alliance and security architecture of the Middle East, but that is just not possible when you are giving one country a free hand to commit crimes against humanity and unlimited aggression against the rest.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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