On Sept. 7 local time, Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Ishiba Shigeru held an emergency press conference at the Prime Minister's Official Residence, announcing his decision to resign as LDP President. Analysts believe that Ishiba announced under immense pressure from within the party to avoid further escalation and public exposure of internal divisions.
However, Ishiba's resignation will intensify political struggles in Japan, making the position of LDP President a "hot potato." The candidates to succeed as LDP President and Prime Minister remain unclear.
Forced to Step Down: Ishiba's Move Averts Party Split
Japanese media believe that avoiding further internal division within the party is a key reason for Ishiba's decision to resign at this time.
According to reports, former Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide met with Ishiba on the evening of the 6th and expressed concerns about party fragmentation, urging Ishiba to decide his position. At the press conference on the 7th, Ishiba stated that a "decisive split" within the party might occur, which was not his "intention," and he made the "bitter decision" to resign.
Analysts point out that, with an early presidential election becoming inevitable, Ishiba had no choice but to resign to prevent a party split.
Four Potential Candidates
Japanese media analysis suggests that possible successors to Ishiba as the next LDP President include former Minister of Economic Security Takaichi Sanae, Takayuki Kobayashi, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjirō Koizumi, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa. A recent Kyodo News poll showed Takaichi Sanae and Kōizumi Shinjirō as the top two in terms of support rates. Takaichi Sanae lost to Ishiba in the runoff of last year's presidential election. Kōizumi Shinjirō, the second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, ranked third in the first round of voting in last year's presidential election.
However, given that the LDP is currently facing a "double minority" dilemma in both houses of the Diet, popular candidates may be reluctant to take on a "messy situation" at this time. It remains unpredictable who will run and who will ultimately be elected.
New Prime Minister to Face Multiple Challenges
According to regulations, the new LDP President must still pass the prime ministerial designation election in the Diet. Due to the LDP's "double minority" status in the Diet, there is some risk as to whether the new President can smoothly become the Prime Minister.
Even if the new LDP President successfully becomes Prime Minister, they will continue to face political turmoil. Advancing policies under the "double minority" situation will remain highly challenging, particularly in dealing with two major issues.
First, it will be difficult for the LDP to regain a majority in the House of Representatives. Polls show that the Japanese public remains dissatisfied with the LDP's handling of the "black money" scandal. The internal strife that forced Ishiba to resign will further damage the LDP's image.
Second, the aftermath of the U.S.-Japan tariff issue persists. Analysts believe that the implementation of the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement still faces uncertainties in areas such as investment, and Japan will need to continue negotiations with the U.S. to seek more favorable conditions.
Additionally, issues such as rising prices and sluggish economic growth continue to plague Japanese society, posing challenges to political stability.
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