Reports of a potential large-scale earthquake hitting Japan in July 2025 have gone viral, causing significant disruptions to the country's tourism industry.
According to NHK and other Japanese media outlets, the rumors stem from two sources: a prediction in the manga "The Future I Saw" by artist Ryo Tatsuki, who accurately foresaw the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and a prophecy by Thai fortune teller Mor Plai, who had previously predicted an earthquake in Myanmar.
The rumors first surfaced online through a Japanese content creator and have since gained traction through a flood of videos and posts by other creators. More than 1,000 videos discussing potential disasters—such as a "meteor strike," "Nankai Trough mega-quake," or "volcanic eruption"—have been uploaded and widely shared across platforms. These videos have been translated into multiple languages, including Traditional Chinese, English, Thai, Vietnamese, Hindi, Indonesian, and Spanish, spreading the claims globally.
The viral nature of these rumors has led to a sharp decline in tourist bookings. According to Yuen Chun-ning, Executive Director of Hong Kong-based travel agency WWPKG, the number of Japan-bound tour groups during the Easter season fell from 10 per day to just 5. In an attempt to restore confidence, travel agencies have introduced measures such as full refunds for tourists if a magnitude 5 or higher earthquake occurs during their trip. However, these efforts have yet to fully alleviate travelers' concerns.
Adding to the anxiety, on March 31, the Japanese government released its latest risk assessment for the Nankai Trough earthquake, increasing the probability of such an event within the next 30 years from 70% to 80%. The report warns that the earthquake could affect a vast area from Okinawa in the west to Fukushima in the east, potentially causing 298,000 deaths and US$1.8 trillion in economic losses.
The Nankai Trough lies at the edge of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, stretching from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to waters off eastern Kyushu. The Japan Earthquake Research Committee, responsible for estimating offshore earthquake probabilities, noted that such events occur roughly every 100 years, with the likelihood increasing annually.
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