By Tom Fowdy
Yesterday, the United Kingdom and the United States announced a "trade deal." The agreement, hailed as "significant" by leaders Donald Trump and Keir Starmer, will see both sides reduce tariffs on cores and aluminium, aiming to protect key British industries, such as the automobile industry, from Trump's measures. Despite this, US tariffs continue to apply against the rest of British exports, leading the BBC to conclude that "analysts said it did not appear to meaningfully alter the terms of trade between the countries." Despite this, the British government was quick to spin the deal as a massive triumph for British jobs, calling it "historic."
The truth? This is a desperate attempt at face-saving by a government that is desperate for a political win amidst widespread unpopularity, following the instinctive playbook of total capitulation to the United States, as is per for British policymakers. The game is not a gamechanger, but when faced with a stagnating economy, abysmal polling, and the surge of Reform UK, Keir Starmer has little choice but to try and sing his own praises, but few are otherwise convinced.
Despite being a "pragmatic" Prime Minister who aggressively gutted the Labour Party's left-wing faction, Keir Starmer has made a number of strategic mistakes which have cost him public trust in his government. The first is that he took away the Winter Fuel Payment for pensioners, which is widely seen as an attack on the most vulnerable. The second is that he and Chancellor Rachel Reeves then doubled down on this welfare assault by imposing limits on disability benefits, known as Personal Independence Payments (PIP). This is an attack on Labour's core constituency, poorer people in society who rely on the welfare state, which is the party's greatest historical legacy besides the NHS.
Starmer pins these tough decisions on a "£22 billion black hole" left by the previous government, and indeed, the Conservatives were a disaster under Johnson/Truss/Sunak, who essentially wrecked the British economy through their incompetence and adventurism. However, Labour supporters are hardly convinced at this. Why? Because if times are tough, why are you putting the burden on the most vulnerable, as opposed to the most well off in society? How is this fair? Thus, Labour's support has crashed, and Keir Starmer seems unable to muster the political opportunism and will to reverse it for the time being.
So, what happens? In the local elections last week, Labour took heavy and significant losses. They lose one of their safest seats in the Runcorn & Helsby By-election to Reform UK, then they are wiped out on Durham County Council, one of the most devout heartlands in the North East of England. Taking other losses throughout the country, the party is panicking and is desperate to try and reclaim support. However, overseas, Donald Trump is causing more problems. His tariffs are putting more pressure on an already moribund British economy, threatening jobs, especially in the automobile sector.
Britain doesn't have a strong hand against Trump at all, and faced with a poor economic and political environment, Starmer realised his only choice was to swiftly capitulate to the United States and make a small deal, deliberately staging it as something "big." Thus, a small mutual tariff climbdown is negotiated, saving the key British automobile sector. However, the rest of the tariffs remain, and they aren't going anywhere lest the UK makes ample concessions to the USA concerning its own market regulations, such as food safety, amongst other things. This itself is more costly domestically than what it is worth. Thus, really, this small deal is just an act of damage control to try and contain the fallout of Trump's tariffs, without diving into any of the stickier details. Starmer can claim he saved British automobile jobs, but with everything else going on, this isn't really his biggest problem right now. It will buy him some respite and take things off his mind, but arguably, as I stated above, the welfare cuts are his biggest strategic mistake so far and no fancy nothingburger agreements with the United States is going to offset the massive public disapproval these decisions have made and the resentment amongst his core supporters.
Keir Starmer is not an unlikeable person, individually speaking, he tries to be sincere, smart, thoughtful, and pragmatic, but he is not an astute political operator and lacks the charismatic power and convincing charm to create a convincing centre-right Labour government in the style which Tony Blair did, who for all his flaws, even recognised his support depended on expanding the welfare state, not punishing the poorest in society.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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