By Tom Fowdy
Tensions are rising on the Indian subcontinent.
Following a brutal terrorist attack on India's side of the disputed Jammu & Kashmir that killed 28 people, India has retaliated by bombing Pakistani territory, targeting militant groups. New Delhi frequently accuses Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism on its borders as a means of proxy warfare, contributing to a decades-long conflict in the region that began with the partition of India in 1947, which has led to multiple hot wars.
It is impossible to determine what direction the current flare-up of tensions might take, and thus it is more important to focus on the geopolitical frictions that are driving them, with both countries distinctly framing themselves as the victim of the other's aggression. After all, the decision-making of both countries is contingent on their core national interests and how the broader geopolitical environment shapes this. My belief? Pakistan's true regime, the military, wants to shore up domestic support, disrupt Western ties with India, and sabotage any Chinese diplomatic breakthrough with New Delhi in the environment brought about by the Trump effect.
First, Pakistan is a chronically unstable country whose economic fortunes have fared much less well than the rest of South Asia. While India and Bangladesh are pushing for development, Islamabad is trailing behind. The popular Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was deposed and jailed and replaced by Shehbaz Sharif, who is preferred by the military, who are the true shadow power within Pakistani politics. Imran's pro-Islam, orientated populism, which focused heavily on Palestine and Kashmir, was seen as risk-prone and unfavourable to Pakistan's national interests as it also promoted an antagonistic relationship with the United States and leaned heavily towards China and Russia.
The geopolitical shifts caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine proved the impetus for Khan to be deposed in a de facto coup and jailed on a large litany of charges, which we can assume are politically trumped up. The new government of Pakistan has certainly not downplayed their "iron brother" relationship with Beijing, as they have few serious alternatives strategically, but have nonetheless sought to re-establish more productive ties with the United States whom they long enjoyed a favourable military relationship during the "war on terror" era.
However, Khan's massive populist support base remains a source of instability within Pakistan, and we must be under no illusions that aggravating external situations, such as Palestine, will only create further domestic unrest. This requires Pakistan's leadership to seek a venting point and a distraction from it. The answer? Tensions with India. The moment is not a coincidence. After all, the US commitment to New Delhi as a "strategic partner" is currently questionable amidst the massive disruption that Donald Trump's policies and trade wars are causing. This consideration has already seen India de-escalate tensions with China, and Pakistan, relying on Beijing as its primary strategic partner, would not want them to get too close. After all, the Indian public gets outraged if China is perceived to be defending terrorist groups originating from Pakistan at forums such as the United Nations.
As a result, Pakistan makes the strategic choice of weaponizing proxy terrorism indirectly to vent domestic unrest away from its government and place itself as a "geopolitical wedge" regarding New Delhi's relationship with other major powers, in particular the United States and China. India likewise sees an outright military response as a performative retaliation against the domestic anger the terrorist attack caused. Islamabad's response to that is then to play the victim, and produce classic military propaganda emphasizing that the attacks "killed children" (without verification). Overall, we see Pakistan trying to force its geopolitical relevance while scoring cheap political points at home. India, after all, is a larger country, with a much more favourable geostrategic position, thus, Pakistan is constantly fighting against attempts to contain and marginalise it in the South Asian sphere. Escalating military tensions is one way to do this.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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