By Tom Fowdy
According to a report by Deutsche Welle (DW), China has taken the extraordinary move of unilaterally rescinding the counter-sanctions it placed on certain lawmakers inside the European Parliament.
The sanctions were imposed as a retaliation in 2021 after the EU, following America's lead with a thunderous manufacturing consent campaign orchestrated in the English language media, imposed measures on China concerning the Xinjiang region and alleged abuses of the Uyghur minority. Even though China's measures were strictly reciprocal, they fell into a trap of allowing them to undermine its engagement with the European Union (EU) and ultimately kill the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) treaty negotiated in December 2020.
Indeed, it was the Biden Administration's prerogative to kill the agreement as fast as possible by weaponizing an escalation of the Xinjiang issue, and it was China's response that ultimately allowed this to succeed. The counter sanctions on EU lawmakers seemed reciprocal, yet it was framed as an outrageous "attack on democracy" and created an immediate diplomatic stalemate that saw the major groups of the Parliament refuse to ratify the treaty save those measures were lifted.
Now, four years on, Beijing has done so. Why? Because it aims to double down on its diplomatic engagement with the European Union as a counterweight to Donald Trump's America, sensing a window of opportunity. From 2021 to 2025, Europe was courted and therefore receptive to the lead of the pro-transatlanticist Biden Administration. The war in Ukraine sealed that strategic window shut, creating an even stronger impasse in China-EU relations. In addition to that, President Ursula Von Der Leyen became dramatically pro-US in her foreign policy alignment and upped the ante against Beijing further.
Roll forward to the present, and the game has changed. Europe is now insecure because of Donald Trump, who has slapped tariffs on their exports and is seeking a modest diplomatic rapprochement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine in a manner that rings alarm bells in many European capitals. This has geopolitically isolated Europe and thus forces it, whether it likes it or not, to hedge its position. When it comes to trade and economics, this unquestionably means Europe would be wise to strengthen its relationship with China, even if this is a bitter pill to swallow. Even if the institutional leadership, such as UVDL, resents this, the most powerful economies of the union, Germany and France, will demand it.
Of course, this isn't to paint a romantic picture of China-EU relations, and that's probably one reason Beijing has acted unilaterally and made a concession with reciprocity. Since the time CAI was negotiated, the Overton window of global politics has shifted dramatically, and the strategic picture has changed. Any European engagement with China, as Beijing seems to understand somewhat, has to come with concessions from Beijing. After all, Europe's own grievances with trade against China have amplified in recent years, especially over matters such as electric cars. Still, one of these "grievances" is market access, and how do you get more access to the Chinese market if you aren't prepared to negotiate anything with China?
So, while Beijing has removed the symbolic "sticking point" of EU-China relations through legislator sanctions, one must read the room and realise that this was a manufactured grievance and orchestrated outrage by those impacted with the precise goal of blocking engagement. It is not a case of "Oh, we want to engage, but you did this," it's more of "we don't want to engage and this is our convenient excuse!" and if that is gone, they will surely find another one.
After all, the US and Taiwan embedded networks have influenced and operate through many EU parliament members. It is their goal to block engagement wherever possible, and the EU Parliament is a ridiculously hawkish institution that has even pushed efforts to roll back the One China Policy. As one of the now unsanctioned lawmakers told DW, they still hope the treaty is "dead forever." It was not a personal grievance; it is a whole spectrum opposition to Beijing, and therefore, only someone naïve would surely assume that things would just roll back to 2020 now that China kindly changed its mind. That's not how it works; thus, furthering EU-China engagement will continue to be challenging, and Beijing will need to be more creative than that if serious progress is to be made.
Still, what is to be done in Europe as Donald Trump weakens their position and bargaining hand? Herein is where some might have to ultimately hold their noses. China knows at least it needs goodwill for that, but it's going to need more, a lot more.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | Why HK is a surprise winner of Trump's trade war
Opinion | A Korean War 'frozen peace' remains the likely outcome for Ukraine
Opinion | When faced with US pressure, Britain does what it knows best, capitulate
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