The US Consumer Confidence index has plunged to its lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting mounting pessimism about the country's economic future. According to data released on April 29 by the Conference Board, a leading business research organization, the index dropped to 86 in April, falling short of market expectations of 87.5 and down from a revised March reading of 93.9. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline in consumer confidence.
Among the index's five components, evaluations of the current job market showed a slight decrease. However, the expectations index, which measures short-term outlooks for income, business conditions, and employment, plummeted to 54.4. This is the lowest level since October 2011 and significantly below the threshold of 80, which typically signals an impending economic recession.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at the Conference Board, stated that consumers' expectations for business conditions, employment prospects, and future income have all deteriorated sharply, reflecting a widespread pessimistic outlook.
Notably, the percentage of consumers expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months surged to 32.1%, a level reminiscent of the April 2009 global financial crisis. For the first time in five years, income expectations turned decisively negative, highlighting growing concerns not only about the broader economy but also about individuals' personal financial situations.
Adding to the grim outlook, 48.5% of consumers now anticipate stock prices to decline over the next 12 months, the highest proportion recorded since October 2011. This sentiment is largely attributed to heightened volatility in US financial markets.
Consumer comments collected during the survey indicate that tariffs have emerged as the dominant topic influencing public perceptions of the economy. Mentions of tariffs reached record levels in the Conference Board's data, underscoring their significant impact on consumer sentiment.
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