JPMorgan Chase has predicted that the US economy will fall into recession this year as the impact of US President Donald Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" measures become apparent.
A report to investors by JPMorgan's chief economist Michael Feroli shows that the firm predicts that the US GDP may shrink "under the weight of the tariffs", and that the recession is expected to "push the unemployment rate up to 5.3%".
Feroli predicts a recession will occur in the second half of 2025, and has increased the likelihood of a recession in 2025 to 60% from his previous estimate of 40%.
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Tag:·economy recession·reciprocal tariffs·Donald Trump
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