By Tom Fowdy
Wednesday was "liberation day," so to speak.
US President Donald Trump has unveiled sweeping tariffs on the entire planet, going further and more extensively than anyone predicted. I genuinely thought the President would be somewhat lenient on allied states for strategic purposes, but nope, the slapping of 32% on Taiwan, 24% on Japan, 25% on Korea, 26% on India, and then massive tariffs on locations deemed alternative manufacturing hubs to China, such as Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), Bangladesh (37%) has taken myself by complete surprise. He has been merciless and ruthless. While he claims that this is about reciprocity, it is of course nonsensical to think some of those poor developing countries listed above are "ripping off" the US.
While the President will naturally seek to leverage concessions, for most countries, this is a non-starter because Trump is demanding they capitulate to a US-centric economic order, which will block the path to their own development. We should not underestimate his vision, and as I have stated in previous pieces Donald Trump intends for this term, his final term, to be a paradigm changing event which on a domestic level changes the status-quo so drastically that it can never be reserved, meaning he was always going to go further, more extensively and take bigger risks than ever before, yet as noted above he has still outdone my expectations. But nope, when he says "America First," he truly means it in this case.
Now, of course, what about China? I imagine for Beijing, if they are smart, all their Christmases have come at once and they should be very content. Once almost singularly targeted by Trump's aggressive tariffs, which sought to facilitate supply-chain shifts out of the country for strategic ends, suddenly it does not matter anymore because they are in the same boat as the rest of the world, and as noted, the countries deemed "alternatives" to China have been pummelled. If Vietnam was the best manufacturing option, that has been blown out of the water, and surely China is very happy to see Taipei get slapped with punitive measures despite its growing status as a sacred cow in US politics, and neither can Japan or South Korea claim refuge with Washington.
Instead, China should not see this as a crisis but an opportunity. It should act calm, patient with a smile and without any need for angry denunciations. As the saying goes, "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake," and what Trump has done is undoubtedly a self-imposed economic disaster for the United State,s which will fray its ties with the rest of the world, send inflation skyrocketing and make other countries think twice about relying on them. While Trump is not "anti-US hegemony," he is opposed to the liberal, multilateral international order and believes it should be replaced with a much more US-centric one, where all allies are vassals who subserviate themselves to the American interest, than being "partners in solidarity." America First is anti-liberal internationalism, and it is what it says on the tin.
In this case, China must once again, as ironic as it is, frame itself as the champion and advocate of the global economic order at the very least. It must be prepared to uphold, defend, and support free-trade, not of course by denouncing or getting into a conflict with America in any way, but instead by simply doubling down on its economic engagement with other countries and providing a haven for their trade and growth. China should swing open the doors to its markets and give countries ample concessions and access that deleverage their dependency on the United States, while also boosting their own exports alike. Approach Europe for one and bring Ursula Von Der Leyden to her senses that unleashing a trade war on Beijing was a strategic mistake, seeking the revival of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), engage with the United Kingdom and deepen economic ties using Keir Starmer's amicability to Beijing before another Conservative (or Reform) government comes to power, and of course use this window to force through ascension to the CPTPP given every other country in the agreement has been hit. Japan is a military ally of the United States, but it can't economically rely on Trump's America, so why not improve ties? And the crisis hit South Korea. What other options do they have?
As for America itself, China should do nothing. If Trump wants to talk and work something out, great, but otherwise, completely ignore him and his domestic agenda, let him do his thing. I remember those years, as I have stated many times before, where China wasted so much effort in attempting to challenge Trump domestically and force a course correction, hoping for better in Biden, only to get worse. Don't interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake? More like don't interrupt them when they're driving towards the edge of a cliff… Now is Beijing's moment, and cool heads must prevail.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | China isn't in a rush to end Trump's trade war
Opinion | The decline of the United Kingdom
Opinion | The Hong Kong International Film Festival showcases boom in Chinese cinema
Opinion | Trump's Cultural Revolution at home, and why he's taking hammer to VoA and RFA
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