By Tom Fowdy
Donald Trump has unleashed tariffs upon the entire world. From automobiles and components, to steel, to country specific measures, the President has been unrelenting in targeting friends and foes alike, unleashing a protectionist wave that has already gone further and more extensive than his previous Presidency.
China of course, besides Canada and Mexico, has been one of the biggest targets. The President implemented a 10%, later upgraded to 20%, tariff on all Chinese imports within a month of being elected. Trump stated recently that he would be willing to offer tariff relief in exchange for China selling TikTok, but given this would not even include his previous "status quo" levies, this would be a bad deal and a non-starter for many reasons.
Beijing of course has imposed its own countermeasures on US imported goods, it has also called for dialogue, yet it otherwise doesn't seem to be in any particular rush. If anything, I get the impression China has greeted Trump's tariffs with a "shrug on the shoulder" and relative indifference. Concerning the previous Trump administration, I believe that China has learnt some fundamental lessons in how to deal with the president and his team, and is instead adopting a "winning by doing nothing" strategy which exerts patience and restraint.
The COVID era of course was grim, and part of this political conflict arose by each respective government seeking to divert blame from the considerable costs of the pandemic onto foreign adversaries. From Trump, to Boris Johnson, the trend was obvious, and it was wholly toxic. A second consideration of China's thinking was that it believed by politically undermining the Trump administration that it could "reset" relations with Joe Biden and get the relationship with the United States "back on track." This again proved to be a considerable miscalculation as nothing in fact changed, Biden not only uncritically embraced Trump's legacy, but in many ways intensified US hawkishness towards China and was even less openness to engagement than his predecessor was.
Thus, it is claimed that with Trump returning, Beijing is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Seemingly, China's leadership have come to understand there are few ways to change the anti-China hawkishness that grips Washington D.C. But realizing this, they now understand the virtue of not antagonising them further or trying to domestically compromise the Trump administration. Secondly, why put too much effort into pushing them to change course? Marco Rubio, who has long been blacklisted by China, is already effectively deleting the One-China Policy as it is.
This position made easier by the fact that China is not desperate. It is neither in a rush nor a panic. Beijing can see Trump and his administration are burning bridges all over the world. As the saying goes "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake," and whether it be blanket weaponisation of tariffs, J.D Vance's insulting comments about Europe, disunity over Ukraine, the list goes on; the greater west are (even if it is exaggerated as is per with Trump coverage) are feeling a crisis of sorts. This means diplomatically China can invest its resources and energies into engaging with other parties, where it can still obtain tangible results. Europe after all, has diplomatically cornered itself with Ursula Von Der Leyden's toadying towards the Biden administration, and Britain has ended the anti-China opportunism of the Conservatives.
Trump's tariffs are what they are. China can talk, if America is willing to talk, but it should not yield to the bite of the power dynamic he believes they represent and have a great deal of political time and space to simply sit and wait, it's definitely not worth ceding TikTok over. The US economy will take serious damage from these misadventures, and as long as Beijing can shore up alternative options, avoid further escalation and remain cordial, they believe they can see it out, and they will.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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Opinion | Trump's Cultural Revolution at home, and why he's taking hammer to VoA and RFA
Opinion | Russia doesn't want a ceasefire, as the status quo is a net loss
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