A Japanese research group recently warned that the pressure in the Chishima Trench on the eastern side of Hokkaido, which has not been released, could potentially trigger a magnitude 9 earthquake. They are calling for a reevaluation of earthquake and tsunami prevention measures.
According to a report from NHK yesterday (March 9), Japan's Earthquake Research Committee estimates that there is a 7% to 40% chance of an earthquake of magnitude 8.8 or higher occurring in the region within the next 30 years.
Report indicates that research teams from Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) have published a five-year research report on the Chishima-Kamchatka Trench in Hokkaido waters, which began in 2019.
The research team set up GPS observation points on the seabed to monitor the pressure levels at the boundary between the oceanic and continental plates. As of last year's observations of seabed crustal movements, it was shown that the oceanic and continental plates in the Chishima Trench are tightly connected. The observation points on the oceanic plate move approximately 8 centimeters towards the land each year, while the continental plate also moves about 8 centimeters towards the oceanic plate. This indicates that the two plates are closely linked, and the accumulated pressure is continuously increasing.
The research team believes that this accumulation of energy may have already reached levels capable of triggering a magnitude 9 earthquake, and they are calling for a reevaluation of earthquake and tsunami prevention measures.
Additionally, according to a previous report by NHK, the Nankai Trough is located at the edge of the convergence of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, extending from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to the waters east of Kyushu. The Japan Earthquake Research Committee, responsible for estimating the likelihood of offshore earthquakes in Japan, stated that earthquakes in the Nankai Trough may occur once every 100 years, with the probability increasing by about 1% each year. NHK reported that the committee has recently updated the probability of an 8 to 9 magnitude earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years from the earlier estimate of 70% to 80% to approximately 80% (ranging from 75% to 82%).
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