Opinion | Deep strikes into Russia, a case study of transatlantic sabotage
By Tom Fowdy
On Sunday evening US President Joe Biden ultimately decided to allow Ukraine to use American weaponry for long-range strikes into Russian territory. A deeply contested and controversial decision, the outgoing administration had held off on such a decision for a long time due to its implications in potentially escalating the war, which Russia had long described as a "red line." However, as the administration is outgoing, it is usually customary for the White House to forcibly entrench its foreign policy legacy by dropping "bombshells" designed to lock the incoming presidency into the same path.
A very famous example of this is Mike Pompeo's legally unsubstantiated and politically motivated declaration of "genocide" on his final day as US Secretary of State, a move which locked the incoming Biden administration onto the same pathway whether they liked it or not. The Biden presidency obviously does not want to allow Trump to roll back the Ukraine war or easily make peace with Moscow, thus this "bombshell" was dropped accordingly, with backing from the United Kingdom and France. Although it is ridiculous to think Russia would respond to this by using nuclear weapons, as this is ridiculous bluster, such a move will raise the political cost of American reproachment with Moscow and prolong the conflict.
But there is also another aspect to consider as well, the Biden administration is not just targeting its successor, but also attempting to block countries in Europe from doing the same thing. Just a few days beforehand, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz phoned Vladimir Putin for the first time since the war began. This phone call was a huge political concession and met with outrage, affirming the belief that Germany, a country that was critically dependent on Russian energy, is the "weak link" in the coalition supporting Ukraine and is the most in favor of peace, as well as nations like Italy. The United States does not like it when European states attempt to break ranks with them strategically, thus it also deliberately uses escalation, backed by the United Kingdom, as a means of sabotaging diplomatic engagement between European states and rival states, locking them onto its path.
As another famous example of this, when the Biden administration was coming into office at the end of 2020, the European Union negotiated a treaty with China known as the "Comprehensive Treaty on Investment" (CAI) which gave EU firms increased market access in China. The United States loathed this treaty as they knew it was a threat to their transatlantic ambitions to lockstep Europe into opposing China, so what did they do? In the opening months of 2021 they, again in conjunction with the United Kingdom, massively ramped up Xinjiang-based propaganda and media coverage, with the BBC infamously leading with an article that January where it made allegations of rape and sexual abuse. The blitz of publicity was designed in preparatory steps to legitimate a coordinated sanctions push on Xinjiang that the European Union would be obligated to follow suit.
The sanctions were implemented, China naturally reciprocated by blacklisting EU members of Parliament and then naturally this was met with outrage proclaiming Beijing as the aggressor. The Parliament declared it would never ratify the treaty as long as the sanctions remained, and CAI was history. Ursula Von Der Leyden, who then turned pro-US in a massive hawkish turn, subsequently binned the treaty and began an EU trade conflict with Beijing. This is thus how the US and UK align in a coordinated diplomatic effort to force Europe to follow their agenda accordingly. Thus, the timing of announcing escalatory strikes into Russia is designed to purposefully escalate tensions in the run-up to Trump's admission, so that attempts by European countries such as Germany to end the war are blocked.
The Biden administration ultimately does not want to end the war in Ukraine because it deems it strategically beneficial to continue, in terms of lockstepping Europe, creating a climate of global ideological struggle, benefitting the military-industrial complex and attempting to strategically cripple Russia. It will of course not win the turn in Ukraine's favor by any means, but it will prolong it by forcing a resort to escalation. For Ukraine's leadership, who seem to see compromising with Russia as political suicide, they will be happy with Biden's attempt to force the status quo for a little longer, even as it ironically results in greater losses of territory and men.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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