Opinion | The endgame of the Ukraine War
By Tom Fowdy
Several weeks ago, Ukraine launched a counter-invasion of Russia's Kursk oblast. The surprise attack, involving Kyiv's best troops, armor, and equipment, took Moscow by surprise and they quickly occupied a handful of settlements. Naturally, the mainstream media in the West lauded the attack and quickly sought to paint the situation in pessimistic terms for Vladimir Putin.
However, as I correctly deduced at the time, this move was little more than a glorified public relations stunt that attempted to unsuccessfully distract Russian forces from the axis of advance at Donetsk oblast. Just a few weeks later, Ukraine's advance in Kursk has ground to a halt and they are now situated with a pocket they must sustain, all while Russian advances in Donbas continue to pick up at the largest pace seen since the invasion itself began in 2022. The more sensible pro-Ukraine voices increasingly acknowledge that the Kursk invasion was not a strategic masterpiece, as much as it caught Russia off guard, but a strategic mistake.
As I have repeatedly stated over the past two years, ignored by most and abused by many, Ukraine has vested its primary effort into pushing a massive propaganda war aimed at manipulating Western audiences that have been supported hand in glove by the Western mainstream media and the British Ministry of Defence. This propaganda has continued to peddle the unfeasible myth that Kyiv is capable of defeating the Russian Federation and liberating all the territory that has been occupied. In the process, it has astronomically exaggerated Russian losses, in both terms of troops and equipment. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence claims Russia has lost circa 600,000 men, and many people believe this ridiculous figure, which is more than 10x above verified estimations.
These exaggerations come amongst falsified and fanciful stories of heroism, be it the Ghost of Kyiv or farmers shooting down Russian jets, as well as a total blackout on Ukraine's own losses and setbacks, amongst numerous other things. I have therefore stressed and repeatedly stressed, that the Western (especially the British) public has been lied to on a huge, huge scale regarding to this conflict to the point of delusion, the BBC being a primary player in that. Ukraine of course, has fixated on orchestrating these falsehoods because its strategy has been to premise its entire war effort on the continued flow of Western support, which it deems only feasible if the "myth" that they can "win the war" can be kept alive.
Now, to their credit, the reason such narratives have survived so long and became convincing in the first place is that Ukraine ultimately did defy expectations and it is absolutely true that Russia's initial invasion was botched through incompetence, overconfidence, and underestimating their opponent. Not many people anticipated this. However, the reality is that Russia has learned from its mistakes and adapted accordingly. Ukraine peaked at this point two years ago and has not been able to make any gains since. Their much anticipated 2023 counteroffensive proved to be a complete failure, which I highlighted at the time as their last chance to win the war on their own terms.
The result of this failure was that Ukraine, with Zelensky having vowed to liberate all territories as his marketing pitch to the West, inevitably lost control of the war as Russia continued to grind away at them. By 2024, Russia had developed the tactic of seemingly hammering Ukraine's defenses with the use of powerful, yet cheap and mass-produced, aerial glided bombs. It has significantly reduced the time and cost of Russia's victories, ultimately giving them the upper hand in Donetsk Oblast. Now, Russia is advancing on the strategic town of Pokrovsk and has been able to even take settlements along the way without a fight.
Despite these growing setbacks, Ukraine's government has not been prepared to give peace a chance. There are two reasons behind this. First, the arrogance and fanaticism of Western governments in having pledged their political stakes on integrating Kyiv into the EU and NATO. Then second, the own agency of Kyiv's own government that sees it as politically unfeasible to give up due to their entire legitimacy and ideology being premised on Ukrainian ultra-nationalism that sees full defeat of Russia as the only acceptable option. Thus, faced with this scenario, and the collapse of their propaganda narrative, what does Kyiv do? They ultimately invaded Kursk. The decision to do this was a last-gasp strategic gambit to try and distract Russia, throw it off guard, and develop leverage over the Kremlin. It provided plaudits for a week or so, but now they have to maintain a military pocket being squeezed from all sides while Russia continues to advance all across their own front anyway.
Moscow after all, is well aware that Ukraine can't seriously occupy swathes of their own country, and even if they tried it would be ultimately to their own detriment. Why? Because if the full-blown force of the Wehrmacht at its absolute peak could not conquer the Soviet Union in what was the largest invasion force in history, what chance, and what meaning does Kyiv's little PR stunt have? Especially if they can't even defend their own lines elsewhere? Ukraine's leadership has ignored the lessons of history. Russia can mess up, and it has many, many times, but size will always salvage it in the end.
Thus, what we see now is Ukraine's leadership attempting to salvage a victory as the signs grow that the war is turning against them, and unfortunately, with a Presidential election on the horizon, the US is not going to escalate the stakes right now as it only increases the probability of Donald Trump returning to the White House. But the question is, does anyone really want a major with Russia on Ukraine's behalf? There's your answer, and therein lies the fate of this conflict.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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