By Tom Fowdy
A key aspect of Ukraine's war strategy in resisting Russia's attack has been the use of public relations, or in other words media and propaganda. Aiming at the West, and backed by a media that will unquestionably and uncritically report everything they say, Ukraine has angled its defense on repeatedly attempting to create the impression that it is able to defeat the Russian Federation, and therefore keep the flow of aid continuing as a worthy investment from Western capitals.
There are many ways in which Ukraine creates this mass public opinion manipulation. The first and foremost since day one has been to astronomically exaggerate the scale of Russian losses, often on a scale of tenfold above the original total, figures which are lapped up by their supporters. This comes with Kyiv imposing a strict blackout on its own casualties, and if it does disclose them, ultimately downplays the figure. Earlier this year Zekensky claimed 30,000 troops had been killed in the war, a figure which has been highly believed to be understated.
However, secondly and more noticeably, this all feeds into Ukraine's doctrine of a "war by publicity stunts" that is creating coverage with shock events to repeatedly sustain support and thus allow its backers to gain political capital, in particular, to advance the misleading argument that Ukraine is capable of winning the war. An example of this previously was when Ukrainian soldiers landed on Crimea by boat, only to retreat later. However, Ukraine is currently pulling another large-scale publicity stunt by attempting to initiate an invasion of Russia itself in the Kursk oblast. In engaging in such stunts, Ukraine typically puts the media incentive above maintaining the lives of its soldiers.
While Ukraine caught Russia by surprise, identifying an opportunity in the undefended border away from the frontier, the stunt was initiated because Kyiv has at large experienced nothing but setbacks in 2024 and has lost territory in the Donbas region. Thus, it eyed the chance to initiate a shock attack to try and distract and undermine Russia with the goal of boosting morale. Sure enough, the BBC, one of the key cheerleaders of Ukraine, has led repeatedly with coverage of the counter-invasion of Russia and created several puff pieces dramatically playing up their prospects and successes. In doing so, Ukraine is able to steer the conversation about itself in a positive light and try and downplay the argument it should negotiate with Russia in a war that it cannot win.
Kyiv, of course, has long held a position that it seeks only absolutist victory over Russia and has, encouraged by Western leaders, buffed any call for negotiations. However, because Ukraine has shown a total inability since the failed 2023 counteroffensive to oust Russia from its territory, and with the US presidential election on the Horizon, Zekensky recognizes that he needs to buy time when time is running out, and the product of that is an attempt to delay, humiliate and embarrass Russia by invading its own territory, throwing its best troops and equipment into the mix. This is for all intents and purposes a gamble designed to try and stay relevant.
It is thus hoped that not only will the West be pleased with Ukraine's resourcefulness and shrewd attack by surprise, but that also Russia will be forced to divert resources and support towards ousting them from their own sovereign territory instead and therefore will have less scope elsewhere. In other words, Ukraine has eyed a chance to set the parameters of the battle within Russia itself, as opposed to losing more territory, although it has likewise sacrificed its own defense of its eastern territory to take on this shock, gamble attack.
In conclusion, Ukraine is a country that is desperately trying to keep itself afloat in a war which in nominal terms it would be expected to lose. In order for its war effort in defending against Russia to continue, Ukraine must solicit Western support and therefore must counteract doubts that it cannot win. This has ultimately led Ukraine to wage a monumental propaganda war and public relations-focused campaign to create the impression they are winning and that Russia's actions come at a devastating cost. If that fails, then Ukraine is always prepared to try and strike by surprise and thus stop Moscow from dictating the flow of the frontlines.
Hence the war has in an ironic twist come to Russia itself, but given it is impossible to logistically occupy such a huge country, and moreover due to the vast difference in manpower, thus may prove a costly stunt that delivers little tangible battle results.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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