By Tom Fowdy
When Hamas launched their October 7th attack against Israel, killing an estimated 1300 people, western leaders quickly threw themselves behind Tel Aviv's right to self-defense. In theory, a retaliatory military campaign by Israel was morally and legally justifiable, because we must not be blinded by ideology and geopolitics to recognize that such an attack was grotesque and its innocent victims did not deserve their fate. However, there was one significant calculation behind this act, that it would provoke such an overwhelming response from Israel that it would unleash a global political shockwave, which of course would then to be Tel Aviv's detriment.
When viewing it in this light, Hamas deliberately and callously sacrificed the Gaza Strip's population (besides the Israeli victim) in view of this wider goal. This should not surprise us, because Islamic radicalism is vested in the concepts of "martyrdom" and "struggle" to attain their broader objectives, and glorifies death in the pursuit of god's will. In doing so, Islamists seek to deliberately aggravate conflict and provoke extreme reactions from their enemies, usually impacting innocent people and subsequently radicalizing and recruiting others to their cause. All of this has been the strategic logic of even more extremist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and was the precise design behind those fateful events of October 7th.
And by the turn of June 2024, I am inclined to conclude that Hamas has in fact succeeded in imposing a growing political, diplomatic, and strategic defeat on the state of Israel, irrespective of the overwhelming disparity in military power and results. As predicted, Israel has responded over the past 8 months by completely destroying the Gaza strip, killing tens of thousands of innocent people, creating a humanitarian crisis and thus provoking a worldwide backlash, even in spite of the Western media and political elite's bid to support the country. Over the past two weeks alone the consequences have rocked up for Israel: The ICC is issuing an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu, the UN ICJ calls upon Israel to stop its Rafah offensive and a wave of European countries have announced they will recognize Palestine. Its reputation is in ruins.
Given Israel is up against a militant group that glorifies death and has nothing to lose, it is finally worth noting that Islamism has no concept of "surrender", the above constitutes a staggering set of political losses that continue to grow. It isn't over yet. Yesterday, Hamas launched a surprise rocket attack on Tel Aviv, Israel responded by bombing a refugee camp in Rafah. Every time Hamas provokes, Israel seems to respond in a way that solicits greater opposition to itself, as if no country in the world is as easy to bait. They have effectively dug themselves into a hole wherein the only logical way out, that is to stop the conflict, is political concessions which would be untenable for any leader to make given Netanyahu has premised his war on the destruction of Hamas and military occupation of Gaza. This, of course, is what defeat looks like.
Israel of course is likely to carry on, but as it does those costs will continue to mount, not just for itself but also for the Western countries who continue to back it. The US's decision to dismiss the ICC arrest warrant and threaten to sanction the court also undermines its credibility and moral authority on a global scale. From the strategic viewpoint of Hamas, it is therefore beneficial to continue pursuing this war for as long as possible, for as mentioned they have no fear of death as much as their goals are being materialized. This is after all a group that is committed to a long-term struggle in bringing about Israel's destruction. Although that is not within reach in the military sense, they are successfully bringing about a change in the political paradigm which is resulting in Tel Aviv's growing isolation.
Israel would be best placed to stop this not of course by relinquishing their right to self-defense, as many fanatical supporters of Zionism claim, but by rightfully throwing Benjamin Netanyahu under the bus, accepting a two-state solution, and stopping the fundamental instigator and fuel source that empowers Hamas as a political entity, that is the oppression of Palestinians, and securing a moderate middle ground for both peoples which can shut out extremism. Hamas of course did not come from nowhere; they do not exist in a vacuum and their ideology is not spontaneous. The October 7th attack was horrific, but it was undeniably a consequence of the policies Netanyahu has pursued, his attempt to bin the two-state solution, continue illegal settlements and "salami slice" Palestine out of existence, complete with US backing. If they are not able of course to do what is needed, then we can only conclude Israel will continue on this steady path of political and diplomatic defeat.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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